Rocket Science Investing - Exchange Traded Funds

Wall Street ends off lows, suggesting resilience – RSI picks 7 more today

2012-01-30T23:48:00.001-07:00

Stocks edged lower on Monday on stalled Greek debt talks, but an afternoon rally cut losses in a sign of the underlying resilience the market has shown early in the year.

Major indexes had fallen more than 1 percent as negotiations between the Greek government and private bondholders over the restructuring of 200 billion Euros of debt failed to reach an agreement before the start of a summit of European leaders.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 6.74 points, or 0.05 percent, to 12,653.72. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX lost 3.31 points, or 0.25 percent, to 1,313.02. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC fell 4.61 points, or 0.16 percent, to 2,811.94. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

RSI’s picks today:

Buy 119 shares iShares S&P MidCap 400 Value In (IJJ); Stop = -$8.34 Target = +$25.02 Volatility = 4.11%
Buy 97 shares iShares Russell 2000 Growth (IWO); Stop = -$10.29 Target = +$30.87 Volatility = 4.54%
Buy 104 shares iShares Russell Midcap Index Fu (IWR); Stop = -$9.52 Target = +$28.57 Volatility = 3.65%
Buy 233 shares iShares S&P Global Energy Index (IXC); Stop = -$4.29 Target = +$12.86 Volatility = 4.35%
Buy 110 shares Rydex S&P Midcap 400 Pure Growt (RFG); Stop = -$9.03 Target = +$27.08 Volatility = 4.27%
Buy 112 shares Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF (VBK); Stop = -$8.91 Target = +$26.73 Volatility = 4.35%
Buy 200 shares Vanguard Mid-Cap Value ETF (VOE); Stop = -$4.98 Target = +$14.93 Volatility = 3.66%

All these funds have turned in a strong showing throughout the recent market rally, I want to see if there is a dip ahead. Then I would look at these as buying candidates.

Fed and Apple restart Wall Street's advance – RSI picks 6 funds today

2012-01-25T23:09:00.001-07:00

Big profits from Apple and a promise from the Federal Reserve to keep rock-bottom rates for at least two more years powered the U.S. stock market higher on Wednesday.

Buying picked up after the Federal Reserve said it would keep interest rates near zero through at least 2014, which was longer than many investors anticipated. The actions were taken as a sign of the central bank's commitment to boost a sluggish economic recovery.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 83.10 points, or 0.66 percent, at 12,758.85. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 11.41 points, or 0.87 percent, at 1,326.06. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC ended up 31.67 points, or 1.14 percent, at 2,818.31. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

The RSI had a good day today along with the overall market. RSI made the following picks today:

Buy 256 shares MSCI Indonesia Investable Marke (EIDO); Stop = -$3.89 Target = +$11.68 Volatility = 5.00%
Buy 405 shares First Trust Health Care AlphaDE (FXH); Stop = -$2.46 Target = +$7.39 Volatility = 3.42%
Buy 376 shares First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technol (QTEC); Stop = -$2.66 Target = +$7.97 Volatility = 4.00%
Buy 256 shares Rydex S&P 500 Pure Growth ETF (RPG); Stop = -$3.90 Target = +$11.70 Volatility = 3.36%
Buy 224 shares Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF (RSP); Stop = -$4.45 Target = +$13.34 Volatility = 3.59%
Buy 117 shares SPDR Select Sector Fund - Energ (XLE); Stop = -$8.52 Target = +$25.57 Volatility = 4.70%

I’m entering these six funds into my monitor list as I’m looking to add positions to the portfolio.

Wall Street rises on bank results, but Google sinks late – Closed out ZROZ; RSI picks FXD & IXN

2012-01-19T21:50:00.001-07:00

Stocks rose for the third straight day on Thursday, sparked by results from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley and as the latest jobless claims dropped to a near four-year low.

The S&P 500 hit a fresh five-month high, with the industrials, consumer discretionary stocks and financials leading gains.

In the latest snapshot of the U.S. economy, data showed the number of Americans filing for new jobless benefits dropped to nearly a four-year low last week. It added to views that the economy is slowly moving forward.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 45.03 points, or 0.36 percent, to end at 12,623.98. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX gained 6.46 points, or 0.49 percent, to 1,314.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC climbed 18.62 points, or 0.67 percent, to close at 2,788.33.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of about 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange. On the Nasdaq, nearly three stocks rose for every two that fell. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

One of RSI’s best performing positions has been PIMCO 25+ Yr STRIPS (ZROZ). In recent weeks it has been rolling over and acting tired. Not too surprising since this recent positive market action has hurt the risk-off positions. Closing out this position today represents a 20% gain which translates to pocketing +3.17R. Not too shabby.

******************************************************************

Today RSI continued to make more picks of risk-on funds:

Buy 473 shares First Trust Cons. Discret. Alph (FXD); Stop = -$2.11 Target = +$6.34 Volatility = 4.00%
Buy 188 shares iShares S&P Global InformationTechnology (IXN); Stop = -$5.31 Target = +$15.93 Volatility = 3.44%

Both these ETFs have been performing well. I think FXD has an edge over IXN since its money flow is more positive. Either way I will be looking at these and the other recent picks for potential new positions.

Catch you later

Wall Street gains 1 percent as IMF gives Europe hope – RSI picks more funds today

2012-01-18T22:30:00.001-07:00

Stocks jumped to their highest since July on Wednesday as the International Monetary Fund sought to help countries hit by the European debt crisis, while forecast-beating earnings from Goldman Sachs dispelled some worries over bank profits.

The IMF is seeking to boost its war chest by $600 billion to help countries reeling from the crisis, even though some nations insist Europe must first do more to support ailing members, according to sources.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 96.88 points, or 0.78 percent, to close at 12,578.95. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX added 14.37 points, or 1.11 percent, to 1,308.04. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC climbed 41.63 points, or 1.53 percent, to close at 2,769.71. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

Today RSI picked the following:

Buy 146 shares iShares Russell 3000 (IWV); Stop = -$6.81 Target = +$20.44 Volatility = 3.52%
Buy 95 shares iShares Dow Jones Transportatio (IYT); Stop = -$10.43 Target = +$31.29 Volatility = 4.49%

I’m presenting these two funds for your inspection. I don’t see anything here to grab my interest. You might find a use for them in your portfolio.

Catch you later.

Wall Street rises but ends off highs as Citi sinks – Bought KRE; RSI picks another two

2012-01-17T23:02:00.001-07:00

Stocks advanced on Tuesday, pushing the S&P 500 to its highest since early August, but sharply pared gains late in the session as Citigroup's steep drop in profit gave investors a reason to unload bank shares.

The financial sector, which has outperformed the broader market so far this year, took a hit on investors' disappointment with Citigroup Inc's earnings.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 60.01 points, or 0.48 percent, to 12,482.07 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX added 4.58 points, or 0.36 percent, to 1,293.67. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 17.41 points, or 0.64 percent, to 2,728.08.

The benchmark S&P 500 briefly moved above 1,300 on an intraday basis for the first time since August 1. Analysts said a substantial move past that resistance point could trigger more buying.

Volume totaled 6.8 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq, just above the daily average of 6.68 billion.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by about 3 to 2, while on the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners by about 13 to 12. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

*****************************************************************

Today I purchased the requisite shares of SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE). It was behaving well but dropped slightly after the Citi news hit the street. That’s okay since I was looking to add financials to the portfolio mix.

After the bell, RSI issued another two buy signals:

Buy 165 shares Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI); Stop = -$6.03 Target = +$18.10 Volatility = 3.64%
Buy 109 shares SPDR Series Trust SPDR S&P Bio (XBI); Stop = -$9.11 Target = +$27.34 Volatility = 4.92%

With VTI, you are buying the entire US stock market. This is a highly diversified holding and pays a 1.92% yield. Technically it is doing quite well.

XBI is also doing well, almost too well. I would wait until you see some price pullback and buy on the dip.

Wall Street slips on reports of euro-zone downgrades – RSI picks IJS, IWB & KRE

2012-01-13T22:56:00.001-07:00

Stocks dropped on Friday, snapping a four-day winning streak, after news reports that Standard & Poor's would downgrade credit ratings on several euro-zone countries.

The ratings agency was reportedly set to downgrade euro-zone countries, including France and Austria, but leave the ratings of Germany and the Netherlands unchanged. French Finance Minister Francois Baroin said the country has been notified of a one-notch cut.

After the market's close, S&P followed through with downgrades of France and Austria as well as seven other members of the 17-nation euro zone bloc.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 48.96 points, or 0.39 percent, to 12,422.06 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX lost 6.41 points, or 0.49 percent, to 1,289.09. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC fell 14.03 points, or 0.51 percent, to 2,710.67.

For the week, the Dow rose 0.5 percent, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.9 percent, and the Nasdaq gained 1.4 percent. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

Although the market was down 1/2% today the RSI portfolio managed a small gain, demonstrating the opposing forces of the risk-on balancing out the the risk-off positions. I guess you might say the RSI portfolio was perfectly hedged today.

After the close the RSI system gave four new risk-on picks:

Buy 102 shares iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Values (IJS); Stop = -$9.77 Target = +$29.32 Volatility = 5.38%
Buy 155 shares iShares Russell 1000 (IWB); Stop = -$6.42 Target = +$19.25 Volatility = 3.60%
Buy 241 shares SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE); Stop = -$4.15 Target = +$12.44 Volatility = 6.33%

I’ll make some quick comments about the charts below.

IJS looks great but I would wait to see where it is headed from here. The same comment applies to IWB. KRE has especially strong accumulation and I would buy it here if I wanted to add a risk-on position. It was also picked last October.

Have a great weekend. Remember the US markets will be closed next Monday.

Wall Street ekes out gains for fourth day – RSI picks an ultra fund QLD

2012-01-13T00:02:00.001-07:00

The S&P 500 closed at a five-month high for the third day on Thursday but had difficulty extending gains in the face of lackluster economic data and another European bond market test.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 21.57 points, or 0.17 percent, to 12,471.02. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX added 3.02 points, or 0.23 percent, to 1,295.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC rose 13.94 points, or 0.51 percent, to 2,724.70.

In its fourth day of gains, the S&P 500 has risen 1.4 percent, but it's added only 0.3 percent since Tuesday as investors look for more convincing evidence of an improving U.S. economy, solid corporate earnings and progress toward resolving the euro zone's debt crisis. "The divergence of opinions on where this market is going is balancing us out and we are sort of stuck." Analysts also pointed to technical resistance near the 1,300 level. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

It is beginning to appear that RSI is leaning more in the risk-on direction. Look at RSI’s latest pick:

Buy 60 shares ProShares Ultra QQQ (QLD); Stop = -$16.58 Target = +$49.75 Volatility = 7.45%

Yes, this is a 2X leveraged fund, so it is high volatility. It is recovering nicely and may be headed higher. Because of its volatility, do be careful with this one.

Wall Street ends near 5-month high before Europe test – RSI makes good gains today & three new picks

2012-01-11T22:10:00.001-07:00

Stocks held firm near recent five-month highs on Wednesday as investors awaited key bond market tests for Europe in the next two days that could determine the direction of the euro zone crisis.

U.S. equities have been performing better in the face of turmoil from Europe's sovereign debt problems. This is a major change from four months ago and comes as investors have taken improving U.S. economic data to heart and an optimistic view about corporate earnings.

The benchmark S&P 500 index recovered to close little changed to continue the recent decoupling of U.S. stocks and the movement of the embattled euro.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slipped 13.02 points, or 0.10 percent, to 12,449.45. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX.INX gained 0.40 point, or 0.03 percent, to 1,292.48. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 8.26 points, or 0.31 percent, to 2,710.76. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************The RSI portfolio outstripped the market averages with a gain of +0.71%, helped by strong showing in ZROZ, XHB, TLT and IYR. Losses were tiny compared to the big winners.

******************************************************************

After the market close RSI produced three buy recommendations:

Buy 108 shares iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Index (IJR); Stop = -$9.21 Target = +$27.64 Volatility = 5.21%
Buy 236 shares iShares Russell 3000 Growth (IWZ); Stop = -$4.23 Target = +$12.70 Volatility = 3.49%
Buy 189 shares Vanguard Large-Cap ETF (VV); Stop = -$5.27 Target = +$15.81 Volatility = 3.59%

All these are risk-on positions. Of the three picks, I favor the first one. It is exhibiting stronger money flow of the three. If you need more portfolio exposure to small cap this may be what you need. With that said, the other two may fit your need in the growth and large cap sectors.

Catch you later.

Wall Street at 5-month high - Bought SPDR Select Sector Fund - Industrials (XLI)

2012-01-10T21:36:00.001-07:00

Stocks climbed to a five-month high on Tuesday, led by materials stocks after an upbeat forecast by aluminum company Alcoa and strong gains in bank shares.
The U.S. equity market continued its recent divergence from the woes of the euro zone. Recent economic reports and optimism about the U.S. earnings season have pushed stocks higher in the start of the new year, with the benchmark S&P 500 rising in five of six sessions.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 69.78 points, or 0.56 percent, to 12,462.47. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX rose 11.38 points, or 0.89 percent, to 1,292.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC climbed 25.94 points, or 0.97 percent, to 2,702.50.

The Dow and S&P 500 hit their highest intraday levels in five months. The S&P 500 close above 1,285.09 is the highest since the end of July and marked a breach of technical resistance, which could spur further gains.

Volume was solid, with about 7.02 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq, above the daily average of 6.7 billion. Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by 2,305 to 687, while on the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners 1,833 to 699. (commentary & picture courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio turned in a good gain of +0.57% today. Somewhat under the 0.89% gain of the S&P500. I’ll take that, considering the large number of risk-off, income generating positions in the portfolio.

Recently RSI picked SPDR Select Sector Fund - Industrials (XLI) which I have been monitoring. Today I purchased it for the RSI portfolio. I have been trying to ease into more risk-on positions. RSI has been picking more of these funds, so I’m following suit.

******************************************************************

After the close RSI picked an energy fund:

Buy 1032 shares ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Energy ETN (RJN); Volatility = 5.57%

My concerns is that it trades, on average, a bit under 100,000 shares per day. Not quite thin, but not in high demand. Also, as an ETN it represents the value of a basket of 6 energy commodity futures contracts, so it doesn’t hold the physical commodity. This is somewhat risky. However, if the economy turns around, international energy futures should do well.

This is a pick that might be worth your consideration, but use caution.

Wall Street finishes up as earnings, euro zone eyed – RSI picks more funds

2012-01-09T22:02:00.001-07:00

Stocks ended slightly higher on Monday in a light-volume session as investors stayed cautious ahead of corporate earnings and key auctions for European debt this week.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 32.62 points, or 0.26 percent, to 12,392.69. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX gained 2.89 points, or 0.23 percent, to 1,280.70. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 2.34 points, or 0.09 percent, to 2,676.56.

Volume was light with about 5.98 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq, below the daily average of 6.61 billion. Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by 1,898 to 1,077, while on the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners 1,422 to 1,067. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio followed the market today and turned in a small gain. After the close RSI made the following buy recommendations:

Buy 274 shares Power Shares DB Oil Fund (DBO); Volatility = 5.0%; Yield = 0.0
Buy 81 shares SPDR S&P 500 (SPY); Volatility = 3.9%; Yield = 2.0%

Unfortunately I have to be brief tonight on these picks, but here are the charts:

A fund of interest is Market Vectors EM Local Currency Bond ETF (EMLC); Volatility = 2.6; Yield = 5.8%

It may make a breakout from this chart pattern.

Economy boosts Wall Street in 2012's first week – RSI picks the S&P 500 in fund VOO

2012-01-06T23:49:00.001-07:00

Stocks rose in the first week of 2012, even though news that the U.S. jobless rate neared a three-year low did not whet interest in equities on Friday.

The U.S. market came into the new year revisiting familiar themes, with signs the U.S. economic recovery was gathering speed taking some of the focus off of lingering concerns about the euro zone's debt crisis.

On Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 55.78 points, or 0.45 percent, to 12,359.92. The S&P 500 Index .INX fell 3.25 points, or 0.25 percent, to 1,277.81. The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC gained 4.36 points, or 0.16 percent, to 2,674.22.

Volume remained weak, with about 6.3 billion shares exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and Amex, compared with last year's daily average of 7.84 billion shares. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio had a good day today with a gain of +0.33%, which beat all three of the major averages. This was achieved by virtue of the risk off positions.

After the market closed RSI made the following pick:

Buy 161 shares Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) Stop = -$6.17; Volatility = 4.22% (per $1,000 of risk)

VOO sports a yield of 2.06% which is a nice perk. The technicals indicate that this fund, and hence the general market, might be making a new change in trend to the upside. It has been beating the market (as measured by an un-weighted index RSP) and money is flowing in. It could just be at a turning point. I like it at this point.

Have a great weekend.

Wall Street buoyed by rallying bank shares –XLU stopped out; RSI picks ITB & IVE

2012-01-05T22:27:00.001-07:00

Banks led Wall Street to gains on Thursday even as Europe struggled again, a sign investors are betting a relatively strong U.S. economy will help U.S. stocks outperform other markets.

Overall gains were small, but banks advanced for a third day, supported by better-than-expected economic data. U.S. financial shares continued to delink from their European peers as investors see more potential for growth in U.S. lending that could offset worries about the euro zone debt crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dipped 2.72 points, or 0.02 percent, to 12,415.70. The S&P 500 Index .INX gained 3.76 points, or 0.29 percent, to 1,281.05. The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 21.50 points, or 0.81 percent, to 2,669.86.

The S&P 500 closed above its 200-day moving average for a third straight day. It was the first time the index has been able to hold above the moving average that long in five months. But relatively low volumes could undermine the upbeat technical picture. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

As the headline reported, the holding in the utility fund XLU was stopped out today. Otherwise the remainder of the RSI holdings performed well. Let’s take a look at today’s two picks:

Buy iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB)
Buy iShares S&P 500 Value Index (IVE)

RSI’s pick of ITB certainly reflects the recent interest in the housing/construction industry. It has beaten down for many years and it just might be coming back. This sector has been outperforming the market and it has been showing strong technical performance.

IVE also has been outperforming and showing strong technicals. This fund pays out a 2.26% yield and represents the large cap value sector. A good value.

Have a good day.

Wall Street flat as market brushes off Europe concerns – RSI picks AMJ & XLI

2012-01-04T21:19:00.001-07:00

Major U.S. stock indexes were little changed in a low-volume session on Wednesday, but some investors were encouraged to see equities avoid a sell-off amid lingering euro zone's debt problems.

Indexes held on to the previous day's large gains even as the euro dropped sharply against the dollar. Notably, U.S. banks held up well, even though bad news in Europe centered around the difficulties for some European lenders.

The once-tight relationship between the S&P 500 and the euro continues to fray. The 50-day correlation coefficient between S&P e-mini futures and the single currency fell to 0.22, its lowest since mid-September. A perfect correlation score is 1; a score of 0 indicates no correlation.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 21.04 points, or 0.17 percent, to 12,418.42. The S&P 500 Index edged up 0.24 point, or 0.02 percent, to 1,277.30. The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.36 point, or 0.01 percent, to 2,648.36. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio was down today with losses of -1.0% and more in ZROZ, TLT, and IYR. These were the risk off positions. On the plus side, the home builder fund, XHB turned in a +1.2% gain, but the losers outnumbered the winners almost 2 to 1.

With that behind us, let’s look forward to RSI’s latest picks:

Buy JPMorgan Alerian MLP Index ETN (AMJ); yield = 5.17%
Buy Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI); yield = 2.03%

AMJ is a fund that replicates an index that follows midstream energy MLPs. It pays a great yield and it has been on a tear since early October. I would wait for a dip to buy.

XLI has been performing quite well and outperforming the overall market since mid September 2011. I would like to see the Accum/Dist pick up (the Magenta line) which indicates an increase in investor interest.

I hope you had a happy holiday week.

Wall Street finishes mostly flat in thin trade - RSI picks three

2011-12-27T21:57:00.001-07:00

Stocks ended flat on Tuesday after fluctuating between small gains and losses in a light-volume session, as investors took a breather following a 5 percent rally last week.

The S&P 500 turned positive for the year on Friday, with improving economic data boosting equities. Gains were amplified by better-than-expected data on consumer confidence, which hit an eight-month high in December, as Americans grew more upbeat about the labor market and their financial situations.

But after a strong rally and with trading volume light, investors were reluctant to draw many conclusions from the move.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dipped 2.65 points, or 0.02 percent, to 12,291.35 at the close. But the Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX inched up 0.10 of a point, or 0.01 percent, to close at 1,265.43. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC added 6.56 points, or 0.25 percent, to end at 2,625.20. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

Today RSI made the following buy recommendations:

Buy 1666 shares of First Trust Value Line Dividend Index (FVD); Yield = 2.62%; Volatility = 4.1%
Buy 394 shares of iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (IYR); Yield = 3.95%; Volatility = 5.8%
Buy 1040 shares of Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU); yield = 3.84% ; Volatility = 3.7%

Let’s look at these three picks.

Although FVD is a lower volatility fund, it is on a strong recovery. I like this chart and I like the yield too. It is a good risk off trade and I will buy it for the portfolio.

I like IYR because it diversifies the RSI portfolio with real estate exposure. If there is an economic recovery then real estate should benefit. Plus it is exhibiting good chart action and it has a great yield too.

I like this low volatility fund, XLU, because it too adds portfolio diversification by representing the utilities sector and its yield is good too. It may be trading at the high end of its ascending channel, but I don’t see a problem with taking a position in the fund.

Well that is all for tonight. Happy hunting.

Rally brings S&P closer to break-even for 2011

2011-12-22T22:07:00.001-07:00

Stocks rose on Thursday, putting the S&P 500 on the cusp of finishing out the year higher as another decline in jobless claims pointed to further improvement in the labor market.

The S&P rose for a third day in seasonally light volume that has contributed to sharp swings recently. With the benchmark index near break-even year-to-date and the Dow already higher for 2011, U.S. stocks appeared on track to outperform such major overseas markets as China, Brazil and Europe, all of which are down more than 10 percent year-to-date.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 61.84 points, or 0.51 percent, at 12,169.58. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 10.29 points, or 0.83 percent, at 1,254.01. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 21.48 points, or 0.83 percent, at 2,599.45. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio has a good day today, up 0.4% despite its 25% cash position. Seven of the eight positions were up today and all holdings are showing positive overall gains.

One fund that RSI recently recommended, iShares S&P Global Healthcare (IXJ) has been proceeding quite well. However, it still hasn’t been demonstrating improved money flow. I’m sure the holiday reduced volume is playing some part in this. I’m also reluctant to step in with the market in the holiday distraction phase with only one more trading day before this Christmas weekend.

Catch you later.

Oracle drags tech shares; euro off after ECB – Sold VXX

2011-12-21T23:06:00.001-07:00

The euro fell on Wednesday as doubts set in over whether fresh lending by the European Central Bank would be used to buy struggling euro-zone debt, while Oracle's weak earnings weighed on technology stocks and kept Wall Street mostly flat.

Global shares edged higher, adding to the previous day's strong gains, though volumes were thin as the year-end holidays approach.

Italian and Spanish government bond yields rose, snapping an eight-session down trend, while prices of German Bunds edged up.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI edged up 4.16 points, or 0.03 percent, to 12,107.74 and the S&P 500 Index .INX gained 2.42 points, or 0.19 percent, to 1,243.72.

But the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 25.76 points, or 0.99 percent, to 2,577.97. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

Quite predictably, the volatility fund VXX hit its stops today and was stopped out. There were no RSI signals after the market close.

Wall Street rallies 3 percent in broad advance – New RSI healthcare pick IXJ

2011-12-20T22:37:00.001-07:00

Stocks rallied nearly 3 percent on Tuesday as investors bought surging banks, homebuilders and networking companies, though low volume was seen as amplifying the market's move.

Investors jumped on a banking sector that was already riding high, extending gains after the U.S. Federal Reserve released new capital proposals that turned out to be less onerous than the market feared.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 335.73 points, or 2.87 percent, at 12,103.58. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 35.95 points, or 2.98 percent, at 1,241.30. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 80.59 points, or 3.19 percent, at 2,603.73.

About 6.83 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, below last year's daily average of 8.47 billion. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

*****************************************************************

RSI made one buy recommendation today:

Buy 179 shares iShares S&P Global Healthcare (IXJ); Volatility = 4.04%

As a side note, this fund pay slightly over 2% yield and its volume isn’t very large, but not thin. IXJ has made a good comeback since its fall that ended in early August 2011. It has been outperforming the market since early November and lately the Acc/Dist (the lower magenta line) has been weak. Before I would consider this fund, I want to see better money flow into IXJ.

Catch you later.

Banks sink Wall Street, BofA below $5/share – Bought IBB; Risk On or Risk Off?

2011-12-19T22:51:00.001-07:00

Banks dragged the stock market lower on Monday, with losses accelerating late after Bank of America's stock price fell below $5.00 for the first time in nearly three years.

Warnings of deteriorating conditions in the euro zone and concerns about tougher capital rules that could cut into big banks' profits pressured the financials throughout the day.

When BofA, the largest U.S. bank, plunged through $5, it ignited a late-day decline in the sector and the broader market, which fell 1 percent. More than 29 million shares of the stock traded, accounting for about 5.4 percent of the day's total trading.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 100.13 points, or 0.84 percent, at 11,766.26. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 14.31 points, or 1.17 percent, at 1,205.35. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 32.19 points, or 1.26 percent, at 2,523.14.

Adding to worries, Fitch warned on Friday it may downgrade the ratings of France and six other euro zone countries, saying a comprehensive solution to the region's debt crisis was "technically and politically beyond reach".

More than three-fourths of companies traded on the New York Stock Exchange fell while 76 percent of Nasdaq-listed issues closed in negative territory. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

RSI issued a buy recommendation Sunday:

Buy 606 shares of iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB)

Today I opened a position in IBB because it has exhibited the potential start of a return to the upper trendline. I also like its diversification aspect for portfolio balance.

I subscribe to a newsletter from a group of respected money managers. They are now looking at the equity market as a glass half empty, so they are moving into more risk off trades. This aspect of the RSI portfolio resulted in the portfolio gaining a respectful +0.3% today while the overall market dropped over 1%. RSI is certainly picking risk off candidates.

Wall Street rally fades after warnings on Europe – Good day for RSI; bought CVY

2011-12-16T22:54:00.001-07:00

A rally in stocks fizzled, leaving major indexes with modest gains on Friday, as Wall Street was torn between hope that U.S. economic data signals better times ahead and fear Europe's debt crisis will engulf world economies.

About 8.9 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq, higher than this year's average of 7.9 billion.

Trading was choppy due to "quadruple-witching," the expiration of four types of futures contracts -- equity options, stock index futures, stock index options and single stock futures.

After an early rally, buying dried up when rating agency Fitch warned of risk of recession in Europe.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 2.42 points, or 0.02 percent, at 11,866.39. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 3.91 points, or 0.32 percent, at 1,219.66. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 14.32 points, or 0.56 percent, at 2,555.33.

For the week, the Dow fell 2.7 percent, the S&P lost 2.9 percent and the Nasdaq was down 3.5 percent. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio put in a respective performance performance with all but one position, VXX, showing a gain today. During the day I opened a position in CVY, which I reviewed in yesterday’s blog. This holding adds to the income producing portion of the portfolio and slants it more to the “risk off” bias.

Have a great weekend.

Asian shares, euro gain after upbeat U.S. data – RSI picks two income funds

2011-12-15T22:19:00.001-07:00

Asian shares rose and the euro edged higher on Friday, as signs of strength in the U.S. economy temporarily broke through gloom over the European debt crisis that had driven a sell-off in riskier assets over the past three days.

U.S. stocks rose modestly on Thursday, after a fall in U.S. unemployment, a stronger-than-expected rise in regional factory activity and better-than-forecast results from FedEx Corp painted an improving picture of the economy. (commentary courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

In the context of the current market conditions, RSI is having difficulties in identifying good candidate funds. So far the bond and other income ETFs are leading the candidate pack. Here are two promising funds:

iShares High Dividend Equity (HDV); Yield = 4.0%
Guggenheim Multi-Asset Income (CVY); Yield = 5.3%

Let’s look at these two charts:

HDV has been backing off its upper trendline and its A/D line has been falling. However, if and when it returns to its uptrend, I might consider it as a portfolio position.

The same comments generally apply to CVY although it is toying with its lower trendline. If it completes its uptrend resumes, it could be a good holding, especially with its 5.3% yield.

Catch you later.

Wall Street stacks up losses as global risks rise – DBO stopped out

2011-12-14T21:53:00.001-07:00

Stocks fell for a third day and hit their lowest level in two weeks on Wednesday as widespread risk aversion sank commodity prices, sent the euro to an 11-month low against the dollar and drove Italy's borrowing costs to a euro-era high.

Investors are disappointed the European Central Bank is not buying more bonds of troubled European countries, a move that was widely seen as a requisite next step after leaders at last week's EU summit agreed to strengthen fiscal unity in the bloc.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 131.46 points, or 1.10 percent, to 11,823.48. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX fell 13.91 points, or 1.13 percent, to 1,211.82. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC lost 39.96 points, or 1.55 percent, to 2,539.31. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio only dropped –0.16%, much less than the –1.13% suffered by the overall market. Our position in PowerShares DB Oil (DBO) was stopped out as it dove almost 5% today. The next one may be XHB, the homebuilders ETF. It is closing in on its stop and if the market continues to drop it is a goner.

Hang in there and keep your powder dry.

Wall Street closes lower on Fed disappointment – GLD stopped out today; RSI picks JNK

2011-12-13T22:08:00.001-07:00

Stocks fell for a second straight day on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve gave no hints of new stimulus measures to offset the effects of the worsening European debt crisis.

Though the Fed did leave the door open to further easing next year, as it has done after recent meetings, it gave no indication it was any more inclined to provide new economic stimulus.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slid 66.45 points, or 0.55 percent, to end at 11,954.94. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX dropped 10.74 points, or 0.87 percent, to 1,225.73. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC lost 32.99 points, or 1.26 percent, to close at 2,579.27. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

***************************************************************

The RSI portfolio position in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) was closed today when it hit its stop loss sell level. It has been in a downward ratcheting trajectory for the past several days, so this was not too surprising when it hit its stop. The RSI portfolio had a very good day today despite the general market decline.

After the close RSI picked the following:

Buy 375 shares SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond (JNK); Volatility = 2.81%; Yield = 7.43%

I would like to see a better long-term uptrend established for this fund, but I guess beggars can’t be choosers. On balance, if this fund does punch through the upper green trendline and with the 7.43% yield it could be a great “risk off” investment. I like it.

Catch you later.

Wall St rises on EU summit hopes – Bought XHB

2011-12-06T22:42:00.001-07:00

Stocks rose on Tuesday as investors bet European leaders would take strong steps this week to end the region's debt crisis, including bolstering its financial rescue fund.

The latest source of optimism came from a Financial Times report that European leaders will discuss boosting the firepower of the euro zone's rescue fund at the summit. The report cited senior European officials.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 52.30 points, or 0.43 percent, to 12,150.13. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX.INX added 1.39 points, or 0.11 percent, to 1,258.47. But the Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dropped 6.20 points, or 0.23 percent, to 2,649.56. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

I have been monitoring the five funds recommended in the last blog. Monday I bought a position in SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB) as it was progressing nicely. Today the RSI portfolio was off a small amount < 0.3%, about the same amount the NASDAQ was down.

Here are a couple more funds to monitor that look attractive:

PowerShares DB Oil (DBO)
WisdomTree Dividend ex-Financials (DTN) yield = 3.41%
PowerShares Dynamic Pharmaceuticals (PJP)

Take a look at these three and add them to your monitor list. I will be doing this too.

World stocks cap best week since 2009 – Five funds to monitor

2011-12-03T20:33:00.001-07:00

World stocks edged higher on Friday and registered their biggest weekly advance since March 2009 as data showed a drop in the U.S. jobless rate, while the euro fell after four days of gains.

The jobs data supported the view that the U.S. economy would avoid another recession, even as Europe battles its debt crisis.

Markets have posted strong gains after central bank moves earlier this week cut funding costs for banks. Signs that euro zone policymakers are working hard to resolve a compromise deal ahead of a December 9 summit, viewed as make-or-break for the 12-year old single currency bloc, also lent support.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI ended down 0.61 point, or 0.01 percent, at 12,019.42. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 0.30 point, or 0.02 percent, at 1,244.28. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC added 0.73 point, or 0.03 percent, at 2,626.93. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI had a great day today as all (but one) positions rallied causing RSI to beat the market’s gains. But one day (or one week) doesn’t make the brass ring.

The following is a list of funds that are good buy possibilities.

iShares MSCI Chile Investable Mkt Idx (ECH)
Retail HOLDRS (RTH)
ETFS Physical Silver Shares (SIVR)
PIMCO 1-5 Year US TIPS Index ETF (STPZ)
SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB)

These five funds span the gambit of sectors. A good uncorrelated mix.

ECH has been in a long downtrend and may be poised to reverse that trend.

RTH has definitely changed course and maybe with a Santa Clause rally this could shine.

SIVR has certainly had its strong up & down moves. If it has settled down and continue to progress with its recent trend it could be a winner.

STPZ is a strong, low volatility bond fund that yields about 3%. Not too shabby in today’s low interest environment.

Finally, are the homebuilders coming back? .. maybe so. Buying it near its recent low could be a great bargain.

Well that’s it for the weekend. We got hit with snow all day Saturday. I hope the roads are okay tomorrow.

Wall Street gains with euro zone, consumer hopes – Break to the upside, bought GLD & DBO

2011-11-28T17:24:00.001-07:00

Stocks rebounded from seven days of losses on Monday as investors used the latest effort from European leaders to resolve the region's debt crisis as an opportunity to cover short positions.

Trading was light, a sign skepticism remains high. Just 6.8 billion shares changed hands during the day on U.S. exchanges, below the daily average of 8 billion shares.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 291.23 points, or 2.59 percent, at 11,523.01. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 33.88 points, or 2.92 percent, at 1,192.55. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 85.83 points, or 3.52 percent, at 2,527.34. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

Today RSI generated two buy signals, which I bought today:

Buy 1408 shares of PowerShares DB Oil (DBO)
Buy 238 shares of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

As I mentioned in the last blog I have been monitoring gold and energy funds for a resumption of their uptrend. Today these two funds did just that, a break to the upside.

Let’s look at their charts.

Since the slide in crude oil prices this past May, DBO has likewise slid in price until its reversal in early October. It then started a strong uptrend. It dipped recently but then appears to have bounced off its ascending trendline. With today’s acquisition in DBO, we now have our limit of energy positions.

GLD, may also have bounced off its ascending trendline. Remember, that GLD holds the physical gold bullion against its shares.

******************************************************************

Next RSI will be monitoring the unleveraged, short ETFs for pullbacks. Several of the short market funds have climbed too fast. Monitor them for a pullback and retracement. Short funds such as:

ProShares Short Russell2000 (RWM) 89
ProShares Short SmallCap600 (SBB) 80
ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM) 94
ProShares Short MidCap400 (MYY) 88
ProShares Short MSCI EAFE (EFZ) 95
ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ) 77
ProShares Short Financials (SEF) 94
Active Bear ETF (HDGE) 95
ProShares Short High Yield (SJB) 92

Now that Thanksgiving is over, we have the Santa Clause rally to look forward to. If that rally falls short of expectations, look out below.

Stocks suffer worst week in 2 months on Europe woes – RSI weathers the week quite well

2011-11-25T22:31:00.001-07:00

Stocks posted seven straight sessions of losses on Friday, ending the worst week in two months, as the lack of a credible solution to Europe's debt crisis kept investors away from risky assets.

Wall Street traded higher for most of the abbreviated session on hopes that "Black Friday," the traditional start of the U.S. holiday shopping season, would support major retailers. But gains were quickly offset by headlines out of Europe that further dented market sentiment. With less than 20 minutes before the close, all three stock indexes had turned negative.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slipped 25.77 points, or 0.23 percent, to 11,231.78 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX declined 3.12 points, or 0.27 percent, to 1,158.67. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC shed 18.57 points, or 0.75 percent, to 2,441.51.

For the week, the S&P 500 fell 4.7 percent, giving back almost two-thirds of its gains in October, the market's best month in 20 years. The Dow was off 4.8 percent for the week and the Nasdaq fell 5.1 percent. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

On balance, the RSI portfolio had a good week. Because of its defensive posture, the bond positions offset the more market correlated positions. The position in PPH was closed out on the 24th when it approached its stops. Otherwise, its total portfolio was pretty close to flat for the week. A far cry from the almost 5% market selloff. Of the six RSI holdings, four are in the black and two are red. By far the biggest winner is ZROZ with a gain of 26.8% or +4.2R.

******************************************************************

The portfolio cash reserves have grown to almost 50%. For the week ahead I will be monitoring most of the “short the market” RTFs to back off their parabolic rise for a possible entry point. Likewise for some of the energy funds. Finally I’m monitoring some of the gold funds for a confirmation of a return their previous strong uptrend.

Have a great weekend.

U.S. stocks off for fifth day; euro up on IMF move – RSI flashes a buy on PLW

2011-11-22T21:55:00.001-07:00

U.S. stocks fell for a fifth straight day on Tuesday, extending losses from across Europe, after worries over U.S. economic growth, while the euro rose on a new IMF initiative to contain Europe's debt crisis.

The U.S. government said the U.S. economy grew at a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, below the initial estimate of a 2.5 percent growth rate, and below expectations for a 2.5 percent reading.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 53.59 points, or 0.46 percent, to end at 11,493.72. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX slipped 4.94 points, or 0.41 percent, to finish at 1,188.04. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dipped 1.86 points, or 0.07 percent, to close at 2,521.28. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

Despite the down market, the RSI portfolio put in a good day today. After the close RSI generated a new buy signal:

Buy 524 shares PowerShares 1-30 Laddered Treasury (PLW); Stop $30.57

In today’s market environment, this fund looks like a good move. It is an a good short term and long term uptrend. It pays out a +3.89% yield, which is nothing to sneeze at. My only reservation is that it is a bit thinly traded with an average daily volume at only 50,000 shares.

I have to take a close look at PLW. Already three of the seven portfolio holdings are bond funds, so I’m cautious about loading up on bonds. However, the stock market futures are down big this evening, signaling a good chance that this week will be a bad week. Historically, Thanksgiving week is a strong week.

Catch you later.

Sell-off runs into fourth day on Europe, U.S. debt worries – RSI portfolio flat

2011-11-21T22:46:00.001-07:00

U.S. stocks fell for a fourth session on Monday, as the lack of progress in dealing with heavy debt both in the United States and Europe further sapped investor confidence in equities.

Risky assets like commodities also fell, sparking a sell-off in shares of industrials and energy companies. Volume was lower than average, with investors more inclined to sit on the sidelines amid the uncertainty.

Late on Monday, the co-chairs of a U.S. congressional "super committee" said they have failed to reach a deal on reducing federal government deficits

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slid 248.85 points, or 2.11 percent, to end at 11,547.31. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX lost 22.67 points, or 1.86 percent, to finish at 1,192.98. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dropped 49.36 points, or 1.92 percent, to close at 2,523.14. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio was dead flat today, a state which is quite preferable to to the –2% drubbing the market took today. Good % gains were turned in on VXX and ZROZ but they were offset by the 1.8% loss from PPH (Pharmaceutical HOLDRS). It is behaving badly, like the rest of the market with a 1.8% drop. I may have to sell it if PPH doesn’t progress better.

I’m concerned that the recent market weakness, going into the Thanksgiving holiday, may accelerate through next week. I’m assuming that market players want out before the holiday weekend, knowing that the rest of the world will still be trading without us. This process just might accelerate,

******************************************************************

No RSI buy signals today. Catch you later.

Market eyes Europe, DC after worst week in 2 months – New positions added to RSI portfolio

2011-11-18T22:18:00.001-07:00

The worst week for U.S. stocks in two months ended with traders mostly sitting it out on Friday as they waited for politicians in Europe and the United States to tackle festering debt problems.

Friday's directionless market showed more exhaustion than relief as Europe remained investors' primary worry. Stocks found support after Italian and Spanish bond yields fell thanks to buying by the European Central Bank.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 25.43 points, or 0.22 percent, to 11,796.16. The S&P 500 dipped 0.48 point, or 0.04 percent, to 1,215.65. The Nasdaq Composite lost 15.49 points, or 0.60 percent, to 2,572.50.

For the week, the Dow fell 2.9 percent, the S&P dropped 3.8 percent and the Nasdaq lost 4 percent.

The S&P failed to rise above 1,225 after a drop below it on Thursday triggered massive selling, and it is now strengthening as technical resistance. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

*****************************************************************

I added four new positions to RSI based on the following buy signals:

Buy 650 shares of AlerianMLP (AMLP); Stop $14.30
Buy 170 shares of iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil (OIL); Stop $18.87
Buy 110 shares of iShares Barclays 20+ Year T-Bond (TLT); Stop $109.82
Buy 88 shares of iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX); Stop $35.94

Note - these buy signals are based upon a –1.0R risk of $1,000 Scale your positions accordingly.

All these ETFs have good long-term weekly up trends and also look good intraday charts too.

Time is pressing so I won’t do much yakking on these four charts. In addition to good looking weekly charts these daily charts look pretty terrific too. There is a good diversify in this group although AMLP and OIL are fairly correlated.

Have a great weekend.

Euro zone, technicals unnerve Wall Street – Four stops hit

2011-11-17T22:58:00.001-07:00

Trigger-happy investors dumped stocks on Thursday, scared by the market's sudden fall through a key technical level brought on by more worries about Europe's debt troubles.

The S&P 500 steadily slipped through the morning until it broke through 1,225, when selling picked up in both the futures and cash markets.

Investors have been increasingly focused on Europe, and markets were cautious early as bond yields in Spain and Italy rose to levels viewed as unsustainable.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 134.71 points, or 1.13 percent, to 11,770.88. The S&P 500 .SPX lost 20.73 points, or 1.68 percent, to 1,216.18. The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 51.62 points, or 1.96 percent, to 2,587.99. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

Today’s troubles caused four of the RSI holdings to hit there stop loss points. These four were UGL, IBB, QQQ, and SMH. Cash reserves soared to 47%, so we have some “dry powder” to redeploy when the conditions improve. I will continue to report on any new new signals.

Catch you later.

Wall Street falls, eyes banking contagion – RSI picks five ETFs

2011-11-16T21:54:00.001-07:00

Stocks fell on Wednesday, with selling accelerating late in the session on more warnings about the potential impact of the euro zone's debt crisis on the global economy and the banking system.

Worries about growth weighed on sensitive sectors like financials and materials. Losses deepened after ratings agency Fitch said even though the outlook on the U.S. banking industry is stable, it could worsen if the euro-zone's debt crisis is not resolved quickly.

Earlier, Moody's cut ratings on various German public sector banks, citing a lower likelihood of external support if it were required.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 190.57 points, or 1.58 percent, to 11,905.59. The Standard & Poor's 500 fell 20.90 points, or 1.66 percent, to 1,236.91. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 46.59 points, or 1.73 percent, to 2,639.61. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

Today the market selloff hurt the RSI portfolio as the risk on positions fell more than the risk off positions gained. The news from Europe has a grip on the market and it just won’t let go.

With that said, RSI picked trades. RSI’s picks for today:

Buy 614 shares PowerShares S&P 500 High Quality (PIV); Volatility = 4.66%; Yield = 2.08%
Buy 149 shares SPDR S&P Dividend (SDY); Volatility = 4.99%; Yield = 3.26%
Buy 163 shares iShares MSCI Indonesia Invstble Mkt Idx (EIDO); Volatility = 8.21%
Buy 159 shares iShares S&P Global Healthcare (IXJ); Volatility = 4.65%
Buy 160 shares Vanguard Mega Cap 300 Gr Index ETF (MGK); Volatility = 5.16%

On a weekly chart, spanning back five years, PIV looks very toppy. That fact leaves me cold on this fund.

On a weekly chart, spanning back five years, SDY looks like it is at the top of its range, but not as bad as PIV. Maybe further weakening of the overall markets will drive investors into dividend paying stocks this might resume its upward trend. Time will tell.

While the Indonesian fund below could grow to be a winner, its weekly chart is showing weakness. I would wait for a better defined weekly uptrend.

Weekly weakness is also evident in IJK. Wait for a resumption of the weekly uptrend.

Ditto for MGK which also has low volume.

As you can see I am not wild about any of these, but I will be monitoring them. Catch you later.

Wall St falls as euro-zone bond yields rise – RSI picks three

2011-11-14T22:37:00.001-07:00

Stocks fell on Monday as rising bond yields in Italy and other euro-zone countries reminded investors that despite changes in governments, the region's debt crisis could still spin out of control.

Banks posted the largest losses, but overall volume was unusually weak. The KBW bank index dropped 2.5 percent, with Bank of New York Mellon down more than 4 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 74.70 points, or 0.61 percent, at 12,078.98. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 12.07 points, or 0.96 percent, at 1,251.78. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 21.53 points, or 0.80 percent, at 2,657.22. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

**********************************************

Okay, which three did RSI pick today? It is a group of growth funds. Here they are:

Buy 110 shares iShares S&P 500 Growth Index (IVW); Volatility = 5.33%
Buy 270 shares iShares Russell Top 200 Growth Index (IWY); Volatility = 4.78%
Buy 108 shares Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT); Volatility = 5.82%

The money flow looks great on this growth fund, although the price is tailing off. Long-term trend looks like it is losing steam. Wait for it to cross through $70.00.

Ditto for this growth fund too. However the weekly, long-term trend looks weak. It needs to drive through the high of $32.67 before it interests me.

Again the comments are the same. The long-term trend has to pierce through $66.00 for me to consider this fund.

Catch you later.

Wall Street gains for week as Italy fears ebb – RSI picks technology fund (IYW)

2011-11-11T23:17:00.001-07:00

Stocks jumped on Friday, ending higher for the week after the Italian Senate's approval of economic reforms gave investors some relief from worries about the euro zone's debt crisis.

After another week of volatility driven by news on the crisis, the S&P 500 managed to end 0.8 percent higher for the week. However, investors remain skittish and are taking out insurance in the options market against future losses.

For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 259.89 points, or 2.19 percent, to end at 12,153.68. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 24.16 points, or 1.95 percent, to finish at 1,263.85. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 53.60 points, or 2.04 percent, to close at 2,678.75.

For the week, the Dow rose 1.4 percent and the S&P 500 gained 0.8 percent, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.3 percent. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

After the close RSI picked a technology fund:

Buy 105 shares iShares Dow Jones US Technology (IYW); Volatility = 5.74%

This chart shows good strength and IYW has a potential to move higher. Its recent weakness against the overall market is a concern (see the magenta line). This is a reflection of the weakness in Apple stock which is heavily weighted (16.7%) in this fund. It needs watching.

On the long term it needs to surpass its previous highs in order continue its LT uptrend. I would wait and see for this to transpire.

Have a great weekend.

Wall Street rebounds as corporate news offsets Italy – RSI likes dividends DLN & PFM

2011-11-11T00:17:00.001-07:00

Stocks bounced back on Thursday from the previous session's steep losses as investors latched onto positive corporate and economic news, in the absence of a clear worsening in Europe's debt crisis.

Still, trading was volatile and volumes were thin as turmoil in Europe's bond markets kept alive fears that the crisis could still engulf Italy.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 112.92 points, or 0.96 percent, at 11,893.86. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 10.60 points, or 0.86 percent, at 1,239.70. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 3.50 points, or 0.13 percent, at 2,625.15. (commentary and photo courtesy of Reuters)

RSI issued two buy recommendations:

Buy 179 shares WisdomTree LargeCap Dividend (DLN); Volatility = 4.71%; Yield = 3.03%
Buy 596 shares PowerShares Dividend Achievers (PFM); Volatility = 4.65%; Yield = 2.70%

These two picks represent defensive investments of the “risk off” category that pay good yields around 3%. While these two funds demonstrate good uptrending trajectories, their long term trends need to demonstrate that they can resume their prior uptrends.

Catch you later.

Banks lead Wall Street higher as Berlusconi eyes exit – RSI picks VYM; Bought UGL

2011-11-08T22:42:00.001-07:00

Stocks closed higher on Tuesday for a second day in a row as late-day news about Europe sparked an afternoon rally that erased early weakness.

Trading had been choppy for most of the day after Italian PM Berlusconi won a vote on the ratification of the budget, but he failed to obtain an absolute majority in the Chamber of Deputies, leading to calls for him to step down.

Despite the stock market's jump on the news, many analysts expect recent volatility to persist.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI shot up 101.79 points, or 0.84 percent, to 12,170.18. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX gained 14.80 points, or 1.17 percent, to 1,275.92. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC advanced 32.24 points, or 1.20 percent, to 2,727.49. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

After the close, RSI issued a buy signal:

Buy 200 shares Vanguard High Dividend Yield (VYM); Volatility = 4.49%; Yield = 2.9%

This fund has been in an uptrend that was interrupted for a period from July to October and it has resumed its long-term ascent. If it adds another $1.84 to its price it will break above its previous all time high, an exceedingly positive sign. On the shorter term basis VYM is in a good up-trending channel, with prospects of challenging its high. If you are looking for a good “risk off” position, this is a good candidate.

And now for the “risk on” trade … Today I purchased a position in ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL). On a long-term chart it has returned to a solid uptrend. It looks good too on the shorter term timeframe (see chart below). It was up +1.8% today.

Catch you later.

Wall Street falls ahead of confidence vote in Greece - Added to RSI portfolio SMH, PPH & IBB

2011-11-04T21:55:00.001-06:00

Stocks fell on Friday, ending four weeks of back-to-back gains, as political instability resurfaced in Europe and investors braced for a confidence vote in Greece after U.S. markets close.

Stock sectors most exposed to weakness in European banks and tied to economic growth, such as industrials and financials, were among the weakest. The S&P's financial index led losses, falling 1.4 percent on the day.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 61.23 points, or 0.51 percent, to 11,983.24. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 7.92 points, or 0.63 percent, to 1,253.23. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 11.82 points, or 0.44 percent, to 2,686.15.

For the week, the Dow fell 2 percent while the S&P was off 2.5 percent and the Nasdaq lost 1.9 percent. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************Although the market was down today I decided to add yesterday's RSI buy recommendations (SMH, PPH, and IBB) to the RSI portfolio. The portfolio was down slightly today. I failed to point out yesterday that the two Holders SMH and PPH can only be purchased in round lots, so I had to round up or down the requsite shares to purchase in multiples of 100 shares.

After the market close today, RSI had no new ETF selections. Have a great weekend.

Greek about face on vote, ECB rate cut boost shares – RSI picks Semi, Pharma, & Healthcare

2011-11-03T23:00:00.001-06:00

Stocks rallied for a second day on Thursday as Greece backed away from a proposed referendum that threatened its membership in the euro, which could destabilize global markets.

News out of Europe has kept investors on pins and needles for months. Investors are worried a possible default by Greece could trigger another financial crisis that could spread beyond Europe.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 208.43 points, or 1.76 percent, at 12,044.47. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 23.25 points, or 1.88 percent, at 1,261.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 57.99 points, or 2.20 percent, at 2,697.97. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

After the closing bell RSI picked the following:

Buy 361 shares of Pharmaceutical HOLDRS (PPH); Stop $66.99
Buy 219 shares of iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB); Stop $93.99
Buy 505 shares of Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH); Stop $29.33

Below are their short term charts. They all exhibit good long term trends. PPH & IBB have been underperforming the general market, as indicated by the downtrending magenta trace. On the last chart SMH is outperforming the market. I like all three and I may buy them tomorrow.

Catch you later.

Wall St down, MF Global falls victim to Europe - RSI picks Indonesia & regional banks

2011-10-31T21:55:00.001-06:00

Wall Street closed its best month in 20 years on a down note on Monday as the failure of trading firm MF Global Holdings Ltd and new worries about Europe's debt crisis hammered financial shares.

In a sign that Europe's woes were far from over, Italian and Spanish bond yields soared, prompting the European Central Bank to buy the debt, while shares of European banks came under heavy selling pressure.

MF Global Holdings Ltd, the futures broker that made big bets on European sovereign debt, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, making it the biggest U.S. casualty of the euro zone crisis. Trading in MF Global shares was halted.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 276.10 points, or 2.26 percent, to 11,955.01. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 31.79 points, or 2.47 percent, to 1,253.30. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 52.74 points, or 1.93 percent, to 2,684.41. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

*****************************************************************

The RSI portfolio had a great day by virtue of excellent performance in its two bond holdings ZROZ and BAB, up 6.84% and 1.95% respectively. After the close RSI made two new recommendations:

Buy 450 shares Market Vectors Indonesia Index ETF (IDX); Volatility = 9.4%
Buy 555 shares SPDR KBW Regional Banking (KRE); Volatility = 9.6%

FYI, both of these picks were generated by our "dip buying" module. So let’s take a look at the charts.

Both charts show that both funds have been in sharp uptrends and have dipped a bit in the last two days. This piqued the interest of RSI’s dip module.

I have been taking a greater interest in the long term view of any new RSI picks. I’m not very impressed with either of these long term prospects. If that changes, I might give them a more serious consideration.

Catch you later. Happy Halloween to all you goblins.

Wall Street, finishing flat, posts 4 weeks of gains – Bought QQQ

2011-10-28T23:22:00.001-06:00

Stocks closed out a fourth week of gains in quiet fashion on Friday, edging higher as the market took a breather after rallying 3 percent on Europe's deal to stem its debt crisis.

Though investors still have questions about implementing the deal, they appeared satisfied by Europe's progress as stocks ended their longest weekly winning streak of the year.

The S&P 500 rose 3.7 percent for the week. The benchmark index had a seven-week rally that ended in January, but only two of the weeks were in 2011.

DJIA gained 22.56 points, or 0.18 percent, to 12,231.11. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX.INX added 0.49 point, or 0.04 percent, to 1,285.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC shed 1.48 points, or 0.05 percent, to 2,737.15. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

Of all the recent RSI picks, the QQQ fund has shown good strength and it has established a new long-term uptrend. Therefore, I purchased the Qs for the RSI portfolio.

The QQQ has made quite a run from its local low at the start of this month, so the question is … how long will this last?

The better question is … Is this the continuation of a longer term trend that started in August? I think it is. We shall know the answer to this question in the fullness of time.

Enjoy your weekend.

Bare-bones EU debt deal news enough for buyers – Bought BAB

2011-10-26T22:09:00.001-06:00

Stocks rose on Wednesday as the slow progress from European leaders in resolving their debt crisis was enough to satisfy investors, even if early reports from an EU summit were short on detail.

The euro zone aims to leverage its 440 billion euro bailout fund "several fold," but details are not expected until November, according to a draft statement obtained by Reuters.

Stocks increased gains in the afternoon as the news emerged, continuing the market's recent rally. The S&P has risen 9.5 percent for the month on growing optimism for a deal to address sovereign debt and bank balance sheets in Europe.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 162.42 points, or 1.39 percent, to 11,869.04. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX.INX rose 12.94 points, or 1.05 percent, to 1,241.99. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC added 12.25 points, or 0.46 percent, to 2,650.67. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

Sorry for my absence from this blog for a few days. RSI has been giving some indications of investing in a variety of bond and silver funds, some of which I have mentioned in the past few blogs. I have been narrowing the choices down by virtue of using long-term trend criteria. The silver funds appear to be in a downtrend and won’t be considered until they demonstrate a trend change. Bond funds, on the other hand, are exhibiting a good uptrend movement. Consequently, I purchased a position in PowerShares Build America Bond (BAB). Besides the uptrend, BAB pays a 5.17% yield. Not too shabby in this low interest rate enviroment.

As the chart illustrates, BAB has fallen to its lower trendline before recovering.

A weekly chart shows its long term trend. As long as this trend remains in place, I will keep it in the portfolio.

Catch you later.

Euro zone chatter triggers late selloff – RSI picks short the Yen

2011-10-19T22:56:00.001-06:00

Stocks fell on Wednesday as traders, after sitting on their hands for most of the day, jumped to sell in a hair-trigger reaction to fresh reports underscoring that Europe remains far from a solution to its debt crisis.

In a repeat of a now-familiar pattern, traders capitalized on headlines emerging late in the trading day, this time to push the market lower. With long-term investors largely on the sideline due to Europe's uncertainty, the market remains susceptible to swift swings.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 75.49 points, or 0.65 percent, at 11,501.56. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 15.63 points, or 1.28 percent, at 1,209.75. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 54.41 points, or 2.05 percent, at 2,603.02. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

RSI has a new buy recommendation:

Buy 122 shares ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS); Volatility = 7.97%

Since this an UltraShort fund it is leveraged against the rise in the Japanese Yen currency. This fund has been in a long term downtrend. This could be a reversal of the downtrend. If so, there may be a good opportunity. I will be looking closely at this opportunity.

Have a good day. I'll catch you later.

S&P 500 index poised to extend streak – RSI picks Silver

2011-10-14T23:04:00.001-06:00

With one-third of the Dow components and crowd favorite, Apple, reporting results next week, U.S. stocks are setting the stage for another week of gains.

After the steepest two-week rally in more than two years, the S&P 500 is at the top end of its range for the past two months.

The benchmark closed Friday above 1,220 for the first time since early August, and bets against the recent rally could start to pile up.

For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 4.9 percent, the S&P 500 .SPX added 6 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC rose 7.6 percent. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

*****************************************************************

The RSI portfolio took another hit today as the VXZ fund was sold. This leaves only ZROZ in the portfolio. After the market close RSI made the following buy recommendations:

Buy 125 shares PowerShares DB Silver (DBS); Volatility = 11.8%
Buy 221 shares ETFS Physical Silver Shares (SIVR); Volatility = 11.8%

These two funds are almost identical since they both track the physical metal. SIVR has an average volume over 5 times that of DBS. All other things being equal, go with SIVR. The last chart is the longer term (weekly) chart. It is concerning that since the end of May 2011, it is making lower highs and lower lows. This price action suggests a continuation of the downtrend or a sideways movement that was started in May.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the lovely fall weather.

JPMorgan drags blue chips down; Google up late – RSI picks QQQ

2011-10-13T22:39:00.001-06:00

The Dow and S&P 500 slipped on Thursday after JPMorgan's earnings and China's soft trade data revived worries about the impact of slower growth on profits.

The declines put an end to three straight days of gains that capped off a 12 percent increase in the S&P 500 since hitting a low on October 4. The Nasdaq stayed in positive territory, helped by semiconductor shares.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 40.72 points, or 0.35 percent, to end at 11,478.13. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX shed 3.59 points, or 0.30 percent, to 1,203.66. But the Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 15.51 points, or 0.60 percent, to close at 2,620.24. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

The RSI portfolio made a small gain today, but it has been battered by the recent market gyrations. However RSI made a buy recommendation that is not its usual short fund bent.

Buy 112 shares PowerShares QQQ (QQQ); Volatility = 6.24%

This very popular fund has been recently range bound between 50 on the low side and 57 at the top. It is pushing the high end of the range. A beak-out through 57 would be a great buy trigger. Likewise, a drop from this level and subsequent recovery would be a good buying opportunity. Take your pick.

I have included a StockCharts “weekly gallery” to illustrate the QQQ longer term trend. It appears to be at the cusp of returning to a positive trend.

I will certainly be keeping an eagle eye on the progress of QQQ.

Wall Street holds steady, ready for earnings – VXZ stopped out

2011-10-11T22:46:00.001-06:00

U.S. stocks took a breather on Tuesday after the best five days for the S&P 500 in more than two years as investors look to earnings for a reason to extend the market's rebound.

Stocks wavered between gains and losses throughout the session. Markets have been reacting to news from the euro zone where officials are trying to contain a debt crisis that threatens large European banks and global financial stability.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 16.88 points, or 0.15 percent, at 11,416.30. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 0.65 point, or 0.05 percent, at 1,195.54. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 16.98 points, or 0.66 percent, at 2,583.03. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

With the market volatility dropping today my holding in VXZ was stopped out. The cash reserves are now risen to 49%. The portfolio dipped slightly today.

After the close there were no RSI buy signals except for an indication pointing to JPMorgan Alerian MLP Index ETN (AMJ). This will be a fund I will be monitoring on a long term basis.

Wall St extends rally on euro-zone hopes – SDS, SH & RWM stopped out

2011-10-10T09:24:00.000-06:00

U.S. stocks jumped 3 percent on Monday, extending gains into a second week as a pledge by German and French leaders boosted hopes that the euro-zone debt crisis may be resolved.

The gains lifted the S&P 500 above its 50-day moving average for the first time since late July, a bullish technical signal. The S&P 500 is now up about 11 percent since its low on Tuesday, when it briefly fell into bear-market territory.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI surged 330.06 points, or 2.97 percent, to end at 11,433.18. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX climbed 39.43 points, or 3.41 percent, to 1,194.89. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC shot up 86.70 points, or 3.50 percent, to close at 2,566.05. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

Today’s market rally, or should I say explosion, sent a knife through the RSI portfolio. Three positions SDS, SH and RWM were stopped out since they were short funds. The lesson here was lack of portfolio diversification. Leaning in one direction can lead to being wrong footed.

There we no new RSI signals today.

Europe hopes, data lift stocks for week – RSI reaffirms ZROZ

2011-10-07T22:32:00.001-06:00

After nearly falling into a bear market, U.S. stocks finished the week higher on Friday, building gains on encouraging jobs data and hopes that Europe was dealing with its debt crisis.

Wall Street's wild week began with cascading losses that brought stocks to their worst levels in 13 months. After rebounding Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose about 5 percent from its worst levels as short-sellers rushed to cover losses on new optimism about Europe.

For the week, the Dow rose 1.7 percent, the S&P 500 gained 2.1 percent and the Nasdaq was up 2.7 percent.

For Friday, The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slipped 19.98 points, or 0.18 percent, to 11,103.35. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX.INX fell 9.51 points, or 0.82 percent, to 1,155.46. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC lost 27.47 points, or 1.10 percent, to 2,479.35. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio, which moves counter to the overall market, was hit this week as the major indices advanced. Today was the exception. Yesterday RSI gave another buy signal on PIMCO 25+ Yr Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (ZROZ). This fund is already in the RSI portfolio and it is up a whopping 22%. Today, ZROZ ended down –1.3%, almost touching its lower trendline. I’m not sure I would add to this position since it has had a big run since the end of July when it was about $70/share. Currently it pays a 2.85% yield.

Have a great weekend.

Wall Street hits 13-month low on Europe woes – RSI portfolio up huge; Sold PHB and bought EUO

2011-10-03T22:26:00.001-06:00

Stocks slumped in heavy volume to a 13-month low on Monday as investors dumped bank shares on fears that Greece's worsening financial crisis could cause a large European lender to fail.

Investors pegged losses to the sharp fall in Franco-Belgian financial group Dexia, which fell 10 percent after a Moody's warning about its liquidity due to concerns about exposure to Greece.

Markets have feared European officials will be unable to prevent Greece's fiscal crisis from turning into a global banking crisis. Greece said it will miss its deficit targets this year and next, which could limit the country's ability to receive more aid.

U.S. banks have become a target for speculators. Morgan Stanley closed at its lowest since December 2008, and the cost to insure its debt has jumped as other banks hedge counterparty exposures and traders bet on the situation worsening.

The recession that wiped 12 years of gains off the S&P 500 was caused in part by a credit crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 258.08 points, or 2.36 percent, to 10,655.30. The S&P 500 fell 32.19 points, or 2.85 percent, to 1,099.23. The Nasdaq Composite lost 79.57 points, or 3.29 percent, to 2,335.83.

The S&P 500 broke through a previously strong technical support level near 1,120 before hitting a 13-month intraday low just below 1,100. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************Over the weekend I was scanning the ETF landscape; it sure looks bleak except for the inverse and government bond funds. The RSI position in PHB hit its stop loss point and was sold. However, at the end of trading today, the RSI portfolio soared +2.6%. All positions are now in the green. Today it paid to be invested in short and ultra short funds.

A prototype RSI module gave the following buy signal:

Buy 700 shares ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)

Since the RSI portfolio has a lot of short funds I chose to buy less than the full –1.0R allotment of shares. If you view a weekly chart of EUO you will see that it has broken out of a downtrend that started in June 2010. This new uptrend may be the start of a major move. Remember, we are talking about a fall in the Euro currency against the US dollar. The chart illustrates the current uptrend that was started in late August ‘11. This trend has outperformed the US market (the mauve line). Money has started to flow into this fund (aqua line) suggesting it is under accumulation.

The news today was all about the woes in Europe and speculation as to what will be the ultimate effect on the euro. We shall know in the fullness of time.

Due to technical difficulties, I do not have a complete set of results for RSI tonight. If there are any new picks I will post them in the morning.

Wall Street ends worst quarter since 2008 meltdown – ECRI calls recession; Bought VXZ, TLT & MYY; RSI portfolio soars 1.54% today

2011-09-30T21:42:00.001-06:00

Stocks ended their worst quarter since the depths of the 2008 credit crisis, crippled by Europe's debt debacle, a U.S. credit downgrade and a sputtering global economy.

A steep slide on Friday closed out a fifth month of losses as weak economic data from China sparked fears of a global economic slowdown while investment bank Morgan Stanley plummeted on concerns about its exposure to European banks.

The S&P 500 index has lost more than 14 percent this quarter and over 7 percent in September alone. As of Thursday, Wall Street's deep downturn in the third quarter wiped out $2.2 trillion of the Wiltshire 5000 index -- the broadest measure of U.S. stocks.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 240.60 points, or 2.16 percent, to 10,913.38. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 28.98 points, or 2.50 percent, to 1,131.42. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 65.36 points, or 2.63 percent, to 2,415.40.

Wall Street's "fear gauge," the CBOE volatility index, or VIX, rose more than 10 percent to 42.96, its highest close since mid-August and indicating investors expect more volatility ahead. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************Today the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) declared that the US has slipped back into another recession. ECRI has a very good record in calling recessions. This call motivated me to add to the VXZ position and open a new position in MYY. Both of these are RSI’s recent picks. Additionally, I added TLT to the portfolio as a defensive position. These new acquisitions dropped the cash reserves to 21%. At the end of the day the RSI portfolio soared 1.54%. Seven of the eight positions had 2.5 to 5% gains today. A happy ending to a dismal market week.

RSI had no new picks today. Have a happy weekend. See you at Apple Days in Penrose on Saturday,

Dow, S&P rise in wild day, Nasdaq takes China hit – RSI picks VXZ

2011-09-29T22:28:00.001-06:00

Stocks mostly rose in a volatile session on Thursday as stronger-than-expected economic data and German approval of a beefed-up euro-zone crisis fund relieved two of the worst fears hanging over the market.

But the Nasdaq was knocked lower by a brutal sell-off in U.S.-listed Chinese stocks on news of a probe into accounting practices and profit taking in Apple shares after a huge gain during the quarter.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 143.08 points, or 1.30 percent, to 11,153.98. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX gained 9.34 points, or 0.81 percent, to 1,160.40. But the Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dropped 10.82 points, or 0.43 percent, to 2,480.76. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio was dead flat today. However wasn’t asleep today since it had a buy pick:

Buy 71 shares iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (VXZ); Volatility = 8.0%

It turns out that the RSI portfolio already holds this fund and it has been an excellent gainer, 11% since it was purchased on August 30th. It still looks good although money flow (lower plot) is fading. But can volatility keep increasing? We shall see.

Stocks drop, led by commodities on economic fear – RSI soars, bought SH & RWM; new pick MYY

2011-09-28T22:04:00.001-06:00

Commodity-related stocks drove Wall Street lower on Wednesday as stiff declines in energy and metals prices underscored investor concerns about global economic weakness and Europe's raging debt crisis.

A sharp 7 percent dive in the price of copper, seen as a leading indicator for the economy, rattled investors and led to a drop of 4.5 percent in the S&P materials index. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc fell 7.3 percent to $32.29.

Investors were on a knife edge as inspectors from the EU and IMF headed to Greece to scrutinize austerity plans while German Chancellor Angela Merkel worked to defuse a revolt within her government ahead of a vote to expand Europe's bailout fund on Thursday.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 179.79 points, or 1.61 percent, to 11,010.90. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 24.32 points, or 2.07 percent, to 1,151.06. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 55.25 points, or 2.17 percent, to 2,491.58. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

*****************************************************************

RSI had an excellent day today while the market dove. The non-cash holdings gained 1.6% today. I also bought two of RSI recent picks SH & RWM. This increased the bear portfolio bias. Yes, this is taking a risk by betting on a continued bear market. It also doesn’t lead to a very diversified portfolio, but maybe that is okay in this current market environment.

*****************************************************************

Today RSI made the following pick:

Buy 154 shares ProShares Short MidCap400 (MYY); Volatility = 7.3%

What, another short the index fund? I guess so, since the market action is certainly leaning that way. MYY is looking like it wants to move up from its ascending trendline. It just might eclipse its prior high of $75, but it might take a while and a strong bear market. Right now I have to see more of a bear trend to buy this fund and see more money flow into MYY (see lower A/D line).

Catch you later.

Stocks gains on Europe, Accenture rises late – RSI picks SH

2011-09-27T22:14:00.001-06:00

Stocks rose for a third day on Tuesday on efforts by euro-zone officials to solidify the region's rescue fund and alleviate a sovereign debt crisis, boosting optimism.

But equities ended off their highs for the day after a report suggested cracks were emerging in a previously agreed deal to tackle the crisis.

A successful solution to Europe's sovereign debt crisis would take the pressure off banks worried about funding and remove a threat to economic growth. Rising hopes for an agreement have helped push the S&P 500 up more than 4 percent since Thursday's close.

The Dow Jones industrial average finished up 146.83 points, or 1.33 percent, at 11,190.69. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 12.44 points, or 1.07 percent, at 1,175.39. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 30.14 points, or 1.20 percent, at 2,546.83. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The market rally these past three days have hit the RSI portfolio. With that as a background, RSI has picked another “short the market” fund. Here is the latest:

Buy 137 shares ProShares Short S&P500 (SH); Volatility = 6.5%

The RSI portfolio currently hold SDS the ultra short fund and back on Sept. 23 RSI picked the short Russell 2000 fund RWM. Thus this current buy pick adds to RSI’s bearish bias. SH may be poised for a move up, it took a hit today. The same goes for SDS and RWM; the charts look alike. But what if the bear market resumes???? We shall know in the fullness of time.

I’ll catch you later.

Wall Street stabilizes after disastrous week – RSI picks RWM; Stops hit on PCY & SIVR

2011-09-23T22:38:00.001-06:00

The Dow Jones industrial average on Friday suffered its worst week since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008, stung by severe anxiety over Europe's spiraling debt crisis and a warning from the Federal Reserved about the U.S. economy.

But stocks ended higher after a disastrous four days of selling, which helped push down the S&P 500 index 6.6 percent for the week.

Volatility spiked in a revival of the tumult seen in August. Fears of a Greek default and the Federal Reserve's gloomy prognosis for the U.S. economy spurred heavy selling in equities.

Stocks seesawed between gains and losses on Friday, but the S&P was able to hold above the August 8 low of 1,119, a key support level that served as a trigger for buyers during the week.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 37.19 points, or 0.35 percent, to 10,771.02. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 6.83 points, or 0.60 percent, to 1,136.39. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 27.56 points, or 1.12 percent, to 2,483.23. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

It was a tough day for RSI as the portfolio shed PCY and SIVR when they hit their stops. Selling these two funds raised cash reserves to 60%. The remainder of the portfolio is invested:

PowerShares Fundamental High Yield Corp Bond (PHB)
ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS)
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (VXZ)
PIMCO 25+ Yr Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (ZROZ)

As you can see, this portfolio is not poised for a bull market. So today’s pick will add to that bias:

Buy 139 shares ProShares Short Russell2000 (RWM); Volatility = 8.1%

Okay, let’s look at the chart. This fund is very volatile as illustrated by the chart. The Russell 2000 is an index of small capitalization stocks. If we fall into another recession this fund, that shorts the R2k will rise. In the past five days RWM has taken off, so you might want to wait and buy this on a dip (if it ever materializes). Bottom line this a bet on another recession.

Have a great weekend.

Market's 3 percent fall suggests deepening worry – RSI soars

2011-09-22T21:30:00.001-06:00

Stocks plunged on Thursday, extending a selloff to four days, as policymakers' failure to arrest global economic stagnation sent markets spiraling downward.

The heavy volume of Thursday's plunge signaled investors are selling in anticipation of more losses. Wall Street's "fear gauge," the CBOE Volatility Index, jumped 12 percent, giving the index its biggest 2-day percentage spike in a month as investors protected against more losses to come.

Energy and materials shares were among the hardest hit areas on worries of slowing worldwide demand. Signs of a slowdown in China fed those fears.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 391.01 points, or 3.51 percent, to 10,733.83. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 37.20 points, or 3.19 percent, to 1,129.56. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 82.52 points, or 3.25 percent, to 2,455.67. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The headlines above tell it all. The market is tanking. The RSI portfolio is again soaring, up 0.8% buoyed by big gains in ZROZ, SDS and VXZ. However, the silver fund SIVR took a hard hit. Also the sugar fund SGG was stopped out. The net result of all this is a 1.4% gain in the non-cash portion of the RSI portfolio. The portfolio’s cash reserves have grown now to 42.7%.

******************************************************************

No new RSI signals after the markets close. Catch you later.

Wall Street sinks 3 percent after Fed cites economic "risks"

2011-09-21T21:36:00.001-06:00

Stocks suffered their worst drop in a month after the Federal Reserve said there were "significant downside risks" to the economy even as it took another stab at boosting growth.

Selling accelerated as volume spiked in the last hour of trading, with banks and insurers leading the decline, as the KBW Bank index .BKX slid 5.5 percent and the KBW Insurance index .KIX off 5.2 percent.

The Fed said economic growth remains slow, and recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 283.82 points, or 2.49 percent, to 11,124.84. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX lost 35.33 points, or 2.94 percent, to 1,166.76. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC fell 52.05 points, or 2.01 percent, to 2,538.19. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

Sorry for my delay in reporting on RSI. In the past couple of days stops were hit on NUGT and CORN. Last week’s market rally was a tough week for the RSI portfolio as it ran counter to the market rally. Today was a similar story as the non-cash portfolio portion soared 1.7% while the market tanked.

There have been no new RSI buy candidates. I’ll let you know as soon as it is revealed to me.

Push for action in euro zone fuels gains – RSI picks PHB

2011-09-15T06:03:00.001-06:00

Stocks rose 1 percent in a third day of gains on Wednesday after European leaders displayed new urgency in efforts to contain the euro zone debt crisis.

German and French leaders called on Greece to implement all financial reforms "strictly and effectively," a German government spokesman said.

Adding to the relief for investors, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi won a confidence vote on an austerity plan for Italy, the euro zone's third-largest economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 140.88 points, or 1.27 percent, at 11,246.73. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 15.81 points, or 1.35 percent, at 1,188.68. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 40.40 points, or 1.60 percent, at 2,572.55.

The S&P 500 is still down 11.6 percent since July 22, roughly when the market's recent slide began. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

*************************************************************

Another tough day for the RSI portfolio since its holdings are contrary to the current market short-term trend. But we are sticking to our guns and letting the system run. RSI did cough up another pick:

Buy 4009 shares of PowerShares Fundamental High Yield Corp Bond (PHB)

Yes, that is a lot of shares, but it is because of its low volatility. If this is too large an investment you can always buy less than the –1.0R risk amount of shares. The chart looks good (positive money flow and it is beating the market) and PHB has a yearly yield of 5.88%, payable monthly. The only downside I see is that this is a bet that corporate America will do well moving forward. This kind of discounts the double dip recession camp. But it is drawing in the money.

Have a good day and I’ll catch you later.

Bets on euro zone progress boost Wall Street – RSI picks EUM

2011-09-13T21:50:00.001-06:00

Stocks gained on Tuesday as investors bought shares beaten down in recent weeks and bet European leaders would take action soon to ease the Greek debt crisis.

Worries the euro zone crisis could tip the global economy into another recession have pummeled stocks, though the selling has reached a level that some argue a Greek default is priced in to the market.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 44.73 points, or 0.40 percent, at 11,105.85. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 10.60 points, or 0.91 percent, at 1,172.87. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 37.06 points, or 1.49 percent, at 2,532.15. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

*******************************************

Today’s good market showing hit the RSI portfolio as corn, zeros & ultra-short S&P funds sank. On the plus side were good gains in the gold and silver funds. After a long silence RSI made the following pick:

Buy 179 shares ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM); Volatility = 6.6%

I’m not too thrilled with the EUM chart, see below. Is it in an uptrend or in a downtrend? And which way will this tug of war be resolved? I guess I will monitor this fund and see where its path goes.

Catch you later.

Wall Street tumbles as ECB discord stirs broad fears

2011-09-09T22:49:00.001-06:00

Stocks tumbled more than 2 percent on Friday after the top German official at the European Central Bank resigned in protest of the bank's bond-buying program, which has been a major tool in fighting the region's debt crisis.

The resignation of Juergen Stark from the ECB throws into question policymakers' ability to deal with Europe's debt crisis, a problem that could engulf a world economy already teetering on the brink of recession.

Investors' rising fears were highlighted by a 12 percent jump in the market's main measure of expected turbulence, the VIX volatility index .VIX. The VIX neared 40, close to its highest level this year, as it marked its biggest jump in three weeks.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 303.68 points, or 2.69 percent, to 10,992.13. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX dropped 31.67 points, or 2.67 percent, to 1,154.23. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dropped 61.15 points, or 2.42 percent, to 2,467.99. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

*********************************************************

For the second straight day the RSI portfolio powered ahead of the market averages (which took a drubbing today). The non-cash portion gained +0.6% far exceeding the –2.7% loss of the broad market. It was powered by great gains in the ultra short S&P 500 and VIX funds. It was retarded by losses in gold and silver holdings. Five greens and three reds for the eight positions. I sold the position in DBB, as directed by RSI yesterday. Its +0.2R gain evaporated to zero at the market open. You can’t win them all. Cash reserves are now at 31%.

With this negative tone to the market I fear we may be entering another bear market. I don’t know what the future will be …. bull, bear or neutral. That is the beauty of using a trading system. No prediction required. It is such a relief to shut the market noise off and go with the flow.

No new RSI signals today. Have a great weekend.

Wall Street hits session lows; Bernanke disappointment pushes Wall Street lower – RSI signals to sell DBB

2011-09-08T22:29:00.001-06:00

Stocks fell more than 1 percent on Thursday on investor disappointment that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave no new details of steps policy makers might take to mend the economic recovery.

A speech by Bernanke on the U.S. economic outlook followed the release of data that pointed to a weak labor market but also a better performance on trade that could boost third-quarter gross domestic product.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 124.35 points, or 1.09 percent, at 11,290.51. The S&P 500 .SPX fell 14.23 points, or 1.19 percent, to 1,184.39. The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC was down 26.09 points, or 1.02 percent, at 2,522.85. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

****************************************************************

The RSI portfolio has a good day today with the non-cash holdings up 0.6%. Not huge but a nice up while the rest of the markets suffered a one percent loss. The gains came from the gold, silver, short S&P, and zeros. Corn accounted for the only loss.

RSI signals a sell at the market for PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB). This fund has been in the RSI portfolio since 12/01/2010 and hasn’t been much of a performer with a +0.20R gain, although it was about 10% higher last April. So I will be entering an order to sell it at the market tomorrow. No buy signals today, just the one sell. Catch you later.

Wall Street down on Europe; bear market feared – Bought NUGT & SDS

2011-09-06T22:10:00.001-06:00

Wall Street fell for a third day on Tuesday on fears Europe still has failed to tackle its debt crisis, prompting worries the market is headed to new lows for the year.

Investors channeled cash into less risky assets as doubts resurfaced over the political will of Italy and Greece to push through tough budget measures and as Germany hardened its stand against providing more aid. The worries over the European debt crisis' renewed fears that the global economy could fall into recession.

The S&P 500 is now down 14.5 percent from its highest point in 2011, reached at the end of April. Though investors have periodically taken heart from signs that Europe has carved out a plan to deal with its festering crisis, confidence has been repeatedly walloped every time there is a development showing that the problems have not been solved.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 100.20 points, or 0.89 percent, at 11,140.06. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 8.67 points, or 0.74 percent, at 1,165.30. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 6.50 points, or 0.26 percent, at 2,473.83. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

Taking a queue from my momentum system I purchased two leveraged funds today:

Buy 268 shares of Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X Shrs (NUGT)
Buy 463 shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS)

Both shares are for a –1.0R risk of $1,000. Scale your shares accordingly. Immediately after buying I placed the required stop loss orders. The RSI portfolio took a hit today, mainly in the commodity positions which were weak on recession fears.

******************************************************************

Due to database problems, I don’t have RSI results for today. If there are any fresh buy signals I will post them sometime Wednesday.

Jobs woes sink Wall Street – RSI portfolio shines

2011-09-02T22:16:00.001-06:00

Stocks tumbled 2 percent on Friday after data showing zero jobs growth in August brought investors face-to-face with the prospect of another recession.

The declines left Wall Street lower for the sixth week out of seven as declining issues far outweighed winners on a light-volume day ahead of the long U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend.

Stocks had rebounded recently on expectations the Federal Reserve would introduce new stimulus to boost the sluggish economy. But the Labor Department's latest report underscores that action by the Fed alone cannot address the economy's deep problems.

Losing stocks outnumbered winners by more than six-to-one on both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. The CBOE Volatility index, a gauge of investor fear, rose 5.9 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 253.16 points, or 2.20 percent, at 11,240.41. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 30.46 points, or 2.53 percent, at 1,173.96. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 65.71 points, or 2.58 percent, at 2,480.33. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

A big selloff in the markets with the S&P diving over 2.5%. Contrast that with the RSI portfolio that rose 1.0% with the non-cash portion soaring 1.7% in the face of this selloff. The stars of the day were ZROZ up 6.3%, SIVR up 4.0%, CORN up 2.4% and VXZ up 2.0%. On the minus side SGG sunk –1.4%. As the week ended, all holdings are now profitable.

******************************************************************

A friend and fellow Fremont County resident, Lyle Latvala devised a rather uncomplicated system for long term equity investment. I modeled Lyle’s system and this week it issued a sell on Monday, August 29th. It is now out of the market. I find that an interesting tell.

No RSI signals today …. have a great labor day weekend.

Payroll worries end Wall Street's four-day rally – Keeping powder dry

2011-09-01T22:15:00.001-06:00

Wall Street's four-day rally ground to a halt on Thursday, with major indexes falling 1 percent on caution ahead of a key labor market report expected to underscore fears the economy is headed for another recession.

A day ahead of the government's release of monthly payrolls data, a decline in the employment component of the Institute for Supply Management's factory activity index heightened worries that August jobs growth will be weaker than feared. ISM's factory activity index came in only just above the level that indicates growth.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 119.96 points, or 1.03 percent, at 11,493.57. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 14.47 points, or 1.19 percent, at 1,204.42. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 33.42 points, or 1.30 percent, at 2,546.04. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio declined 0.2%, nothing near the –1% plus hit the general market took. At the market close all positions are profitable except for the VIX fund that is down $1.80, a negligible amount. Right now “keeping power dry” seems to be the better part of valor. However, I may be looking at some income producing “holding” positions. The cash reserves are not burning a hole in the pocket.

No RSI signals today.

Wall Street gains as Fed minutes boost stimulus bets – Bought VXZ

2011-08-30T21:54:00.001-06:00

Stocks rose for a third straight day on Tuesday in a volatile session, after minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting boosted expectations the U.S. central bank will act again to stimulate the economy.

Equities surged near the close of the market, though they quickly pared gains, after the release of the Fed's August 9 minutes showed the central bank had considered bold steps to help the fledgling economy.

News earlier in the day showing consumer confidence fell to its worst level in two years cemented the growing belief the Fed will have to intervene with aggressive steps when it meets in late September. Many market participants had thought that the odds of more action from the Fed were slim.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 20.39 points, or 0.18 percent, at 11,559.64. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 2.80 points, or 0.23 percent, at 1,212.88. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 14.00 points, or 0.55 percent, at 2,576.11. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

*****************************************************************

The RSI portfolio had a good day today, along with the equity markets. With the exception of the sugar ETN, all the other positions were in the green today.

Today I monitored the progress of iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (VXZ). The numbers and chart looked good so I decided to put on a position. Cash reserves are now sitting at a large 40%. In this volatile, downward trending market it is good to have your power dry.

No new RSI picks today.

Wall Street surges 2 percent on Greek bank deal; trade thin – RSI likes volatility

2011-08-29T22:11:00.001-06:00

Stocks soared more than 2 percent in a broad rally on Monday as a merger between two big Greek banks provided a rare bit of encouraging news out of debt-stricken Europe.

A rebound in consumer spending calmed fears of a new U.S. recession and also helped lift all 10 S&P sectors. Only five S&P stocks ended in negative territory while the CBOE Volatility index .VIX, a measure of investor fear, lost 9.3 percent. But volume was low, amplifying the surge in shares.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 254.71 points, or 2.26 percent, at 11,539.25. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 33.28 points, or 2.83 percent, at 1,210.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 82.26 points, or 3.32 percent, at 2,562.11. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

A great day in the equity markets translated into a small loss for the RSI portfolio. Especially hard hit was the position in PIMCO Zeros (ZROZ) that was down –2.65%.

Today RSI has the following buy recommendation:

Buy 205 shares iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (VXZ) Volatility = 9.75%

This is a bet on the market volatility increases and it is a high volatility fund. This could be a wild ride, so use great care with this ETN. For the month of August VXZ has been on a tear. It took a –2.47% dip today and RSI is thinking this will be continuing higher. Look for a buying opportunity on VXZ.

Have a great day and I’ll catch you later.

Stocks rebound as investors digest Bernanke speech _ Stimulate commodities?

2011-08-26T22:03:00.001-06:00

Wall Street stocks rebounded on Friday as investors digested Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks about the economy and regained hope the door was still open for more monetary stimulus down the road.

Major indexes turned positive after initially extending losses as Bernanke failed to offer any concrete action for monetary easing in a speech at a central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI ended up 134.72 points, or 1.21 percent, at 11,284.54. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 17.53 points, or 1.51 percent, at 1,176.80. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 60.22 points, or 2.49 percent, at 2,479.85. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

Monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve will most likely stimulate commodity prices. Last year many gold investors sent Fed Chair Bernanke Christmas cards to thank him for his contribution to their wealth. Will we see that again? We shall see as 2011 unfolds.

The RSI portfolio has a great day today as the non cash portion gained 1.5% to end a good week. Cash reserves still garner a large 48% portion of the portfolio.

******************************************************************

After the market close there were no RSI signals. Have a great weekend.

Tense market falls ahead of Bernanke speech – Bought ZROZ

2011-08-25T22:12:00.001-06:00

U.S. stocks fell on Thursday as investors raised cash ahead of a critical speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, hoping he will give them a clearer picture of the Fed's plans for the struggling economy.

Several negatives contributed to the market's weakness after three days of gains. Jitters over a sharp drop in German stocks and a report showing continued U.S. job market weakness helped fuel the selling.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 170.89 points, or 1.51 percent, to 11,149.82. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX fell 18.33 points, or 1.56 percent, to 1,159.27. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC lost 48.06 points, or 1.95 percent, to 2,419.63. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

I took the morning off to play golf in Florence, CO with my friends and I got to a computer in time to place an order to buy the required number of shares of PIMCO 25+ Yr Zero Cpn U.S. Trsy Idx ETF (ZROZ). When the market closed I saw that the RSI portfolio had chalked up a small, but nicely appreciated gain. Appreciated because of the big drop in the markets today. The gains were mostly from the positions in silver and base metal ETFs.

******************************************************************

After the market closed there were no new RSI signals. I’ll catch you later.

Wall Street gains as gold rush ends; Apple's CEO quits – RSI picks PIMCO Zeros

2011-08-24T21:52:00.001-06:00

Stocks rallied for a second day on Wednesday as investors bought beaten-down financial shares and unloaded gold, but tech stocks could fall on Thursday after late news about Apple's Steve Jobs stepping down as CEO.

During the regular session, the stock market swung back and forth as investors anticipated a key speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday. There had been hope the Fed chief would hint of stimulus to aid the struggling economy, but a more likely outcome is for gradual measures.

The Dow Jones industrial average shot up 143.95 points, or 1.29 percent, to end at 11,320.71. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index jumped 15.25 points, or 1.31 percent, to finish at 1,177.60. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 21.63 points, or 0.88 percent, to close at 2,467.69. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

After the close RSI picked the following:

Buy 184 shares PIMCO 25+ Yr Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (ZROZ); Volatility = 7.8%

There are some major pros & cons with this pick. If you are not familiar with zero coupon bonds I suggest you look it up. This ETF trades, on average, about 40k shares per day so it is thinly traded. It took a huge –5.05% hit today as the equity markets pulled funds out of the bond market. See graph below of the accumulation/distribution (light blue line). It has a yield of 4.33% and pays out quarterly. Finally, PIMCO is an outstanding bond investment house. I will be taking a close look at this selection, ZROZ.

Catch you later.

Hopes for another Fed rescue drive 3 percent rally on Wall St

2011-08-23T21:53:00.001-06:00

Stocks shot 3 percent higher on Tuesday on speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke this week would signal new help for the economy, giving investors hope a four-week rout was nearing an end.

Weak data in housing and regional factory activity triggered the latest round of bets that Bernanke will act, even though the Fed's options appear limited. Bernanke speaks to a central bank conference on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 322.11 points, or 2.97 percent, at 11,176.76. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 38.53 points, or 3.43 percent, at 1,162.35. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 100.68 points, or 4.29 percent, at 2,446.06. commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio had a meager gain today, not like the gangbuster day seen in the equity markets. As I stated before the portfolio is mostly in cash and commodities, so today’s performance is not unexpected.

No RSI signals today … catch you later.

Bargain hunters tiptoe back but remain cautious – Bought PCY

2011-08-22T21:37:00.001-06:00

U.S. stocks ended slightly higher on Monday after four weeks of losses as investors hesitated to take big risks without a catalyst for buying.

The market was led by large-cap techs and industrials until late in the session when a rally faded.

Speculation is widespread in financial markets that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will use his Friday speech at a central banker conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to signal a new monetary offensive to support a faltering U.S. economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 36.85 points, or 0.34 percent, at 10,854.50. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 0.29 point, or 0.03 percent, at 1,123.82. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 3.54 points, or 0.15 percent, at 2,345.38. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio had a fair day, up in line with the markets. I have been monitoring PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt (PCY) since RSI’s buy recommendation on August 17th. I liked what I saw and dipped my toe in with a 1.0R risk position. I also liked its 5.5% annual yield and its monthly payment. If I need to park some more of the cash reserves I will consider other good yielding funds.

There were no RSI buy signals today. Catch you later.

Wall Street sinks for fourth straight week – RSI does great today

2011-08-19T23:41:00.001-06:00

Wall Street ended a fourth week of losses on a down note on Friday as most buyers left the market before the weekend on growing fears of another U.S. recession and destabilization in Europe's financial system.

Investors already reeling from big losses in growth stocks were thumped by a dismal outlook from Hewlett-Packard, which dropped nearly 20 percent, its worst day since the stock-market crash of 1987.

Worries that the United States and the global economy may be headed for another recession have unnerved investors in recent weeks. Thursday marked the sixth time in the past two weeks that the S&P 500 has moved 4 percent or more.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 172.93 points, or 1.57 percent, to end at 10,817.65. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 17.12 points, or 1.50 percent, to 1,123.53. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 38.59 points, or 1.62 percent, to close at 2,341.84. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

Despite the market’s poor performance today, the RSI portfolio had an outstanding day led by 5% plus gains in silver and sugar funds. The equity (non cash) portion of the portfolio turned in a 2.86% gain. This demonstrates the value of investing in ETFs and ETNs since they cut across a vast landscape of investment vehicles such as commodities. Using this strategy, one doesn’t have to focus in on just stock equities. There is a whole world of investing in ETFs.

******************************************************************

No RSI buy picks today. Have a great weekend.

Markets close with biggest drop since U.S. downgrade

2011-08-18T22:13:00.001-06:00

Oil closed down 6 percent on Thursday, tumbling with other commodities that reflect investors' risk appetite as renewed economic fears triggered the biggest losses since the August 5 U.S. credit downgrade.

Snapping three days of relative calm, global stock markets tumbled as weak indicators for U.S. regional factory activity and business combined with fresh fears over the health of euro zone banks.

Gold hit record highs, while other so-called safe havens such as the Swiss franc, U.S. dollar and bonds rallied.

The Reuters-Jefferies CRB .CRB, a global benchmark for commodities, finished down 2.3 percent. It was the index's biggest daily decline since August 8, when energy, metals and agricultural markets slumped in the aftermath of Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. triple-A credit rating.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 419.63 points, or 3.68 percent, to 10,990.58, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 53.24 points, or 4.46 percent, to 1,140.65, and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 131.05 points, or 5.22 percent, to 2,380.43. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio took a minor hit today as the commodity holdings slumped but silver was up almost 1%. We are holding a very high 73% cash reserve position … most fortunately.

No RSI signals today. Catch you later.

Tech shares fall on weakness, NetApp down late - RSI picks PCY

2011-08-17T22:21:00.001-06:00

Tech shares fell on Wednesday after Dell's disappointing sales outlook fanned worries weak economic growth will hurt earnings in the third quarter.

The Dow and S&P indices ended little changed in an up-and-down session where investors sold growth sectors in favor of defensive shares like telecoms and utilities.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 4.28 points, or 0.04 percent, at 11,410.21. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 1.12 points, or 0.09 percent, at 1,193.88. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 11.97 points, or 0.47 percent, at 2,511.48. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

****************************************************************

While the market was flat today, the RSI portfolio made a nice gain powered by a 5.3% gain in our sugar fund holding, SGG. After the market close, RSI generated a new buy signal:

Buy PowerShares Emerging Mkts Sovereign Debt (PCY); set stop loss $0.57 below entry price

This fund is not primarily for capital appreciation but for income. PCY generates 5.52% yield and it pays monthly. This might be a good holding position to generate some income. It holds government bonds in emerging markets. The downside is that the foreign debt markets are a bit scary, so this fund might not be good for the faint of heart.

Catch you later.

French-German euro zone plan fails to inspire Wall St – Bought Silver, Sugar & Corn

2011-08-16T21:38:00.001-06:00

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after three days of gains when a meeting between the heads of France and Germany failed to quell fears about euro zone leaders' ability to contain the region's sovereign debt woes.

Efforts to stem the spreading European debt crisis have so far been ineffective, a major reason for the equity market's declines in recent weeks. Stocks were unable to rally on Tuesday despite positive U.S. earnings and Fitch Ratings' decision to keep the AAA credit rating for the United States.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 76.97 points, or 0.67 percent, at 11,405.93, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 11.73 points, or 0.97 percent, at 1,192.76, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 31.75 points, or 1.24 percent, at 2,523.45. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

Licking my wounds from last week’s drubbing, I went to my momentum methodology that came up with the following buy signals (based on a $1,000 risk):

Buy 120 shares of ETFS Physical Silver Shares (SIVR); stop at –1.0R
Buy 125 shares of iPath DJ-UBS Sugar TR Sub-Idx ETN (SGG); stop at –1.0R
Buy 360 shares of Teucrium Corn (CORN); stop at –1.0R

These three funds have had great performance over the year as exemplified by their high momentum scores. The expectation is that they will continue to lead the ETF pack.

These six month charts don’t really show their strong performance throughout the year.

If the economy is headed for another recession then worldwide demand for silver, sugar and corn most likely would be depressed. That is why stop loss levels are necessary.

Have a good day and I’ll catch you later.

Wild week on Wall Street ends with subdued gains – Last of the shorts stopped out

2011-08-12T23:55:00.001-06:00

After one of the most volatile weeks in memory, U.S.stocks ended higher on Friday in a tentative sign that the worst of the selling may be over.

Volume was much lighter than on any other day of the week and intraday swings were far less violent than in previous days. Both signs suggested a drop in investor anxiety.

Still, the market was down for the week and posted its worst three-week decline since March 2009 when it hit 12-year lows.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 125.71 points, or 1.13 percent, to 11,269.02. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 6.17 points, or 0.53 percent, to 1,178.81. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 15.30 points, or 0.61 percent, to 2,507.98.

For the week, the Dow fell 1.5 percent and the Nasdaq lost 1 percent. The S&P 500 fell on 11 of the past 15 days, dropping 12.4 percent in three weeks. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

Today’s market gyrations took out my two remaining short funds, EFZ and EFU. This short fund adventure cost the RSI portfolio dearly … a good lesson learned. I didn’t limit fund correlation, which was a lapse in discipline. Now it is time to lick our wounds and march on to the future.

There were no RSI picks today. Have a great weekend.

Wall Street roars back but selling may return – Stopped out EWV, DXD, SDD, SDS

2011-08-11T23:30:00.001-06:00

Stocks shot up 4 percent on Thursday as bargain-hungry investors overcame the recent wave of fear that drove selling over the last two weeks.

Thursday's rally marked the second bounce in a yo-yo week. After a sell-off that pushed the S&P 500 down as much as 17 percent since July 22, the market is showing some signs of regaining its footing.

The Dow Jones industrial average surged 423.37 points, or 3.95 percent, to 11,143.31. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index shot up 51.88 points, or 4.63 percent, to 1,172.64. The Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 111.63 points, or 4.69 percent, at 2,492.68. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

The market reversal hit all my short funds and stopped out four positions for –1.0R losses. This market volatility is something else. This is a dangerous and volatile market and be careful not to get burned.

No new RSI picks today. Catch you later.

Banks drag Wall Street lower as fear returns – Bought six short funds

2011-08-10T22:30:00.001-06:00

Fear returned to Wall Street on Wednesday, sending the S&P 500 to another 4 percent decline, triggered by worries that Europe's debt crisis could engulf French banks and spill onto the U.S. financial sector.

Trading was once again marked by sharp moves on heavy volume. For a fifth straight day, the Dow Industrials fluctuated in a range of more than 400 points. Even after Tuesday's snap-back rally, the S&P 500 is down almost 18 percent from its 2011 closing high set April 29.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 519.83 points, or 4.62 percent, to 10,719.94. The S&P 500 fell 51.77 points, or 4.42 percent, to 1,120.76. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 101.47 points, or 4.09 percent, to 2,381.05. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

I started off the day buying many of yesterday’s recommendations from RSI. They were all short funds and they were:

ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (DXD)
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Japan (EWV)
ProShares UltraShort SmallCap600 (SDD)
ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS)
ProShares Short MSCI EAFE (EFZ)
ProShares UltraShort MSCI EAFE (EFU)

Yes, I went on a short fund shopping spree. And what a great day the RSI portfolio had today on the market’s plunge.

I have received some inquires about the RSI module that made yesterday’s pick. It is a system that buys the dips based on price excursions. It is fairly simple in concept, but it sure made the right picks. That is, it was right for today but what about the future? From extensive testing, it has a good track record, but it trades quite infrequently such as times with the volatility that we have recently experienced.

There were no RSI buy signals today.

Wall Street roars back in wild trade after Fed meet – AGQ & IJS stopped out; RSI picks a ton of short funds

2011-08-09T22:43:00.001-06:00

Stocks rallied on Tuesday in a volatile session as investors struggled to decipher the Fed's signals on the economy after a dizzying two-week slide.

Buying accelerated into the close and the S&P 500 posted its best day in more than two years, following a drop of nearly 17 percent over the past weeks.

The market reversed direction six times after a Fed statement that pledged two more years of near-zero interest rates.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 429.92 points, or 3.98 percent, to end at 11,239.77. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 53.07 points, or 4.74 percent, to 1,172.53. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 124.83 points, or 5.29 percent, to 2,482.52. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

The market gyrations of today led to of the RSI portfolio positions to hit their stops. This now leaves only one position in base metals ETF (DBB). We are now awaiting RSI’s next buy recommendation. Cash reserves are now at an all time high and they are awaiting an opportunity to be put to work again. With all this market chaos, there should be some plump opportunities ahead.

And as if on queue, RSI pumped out a dozen Buy signals. They are:

Buy 231 shares ProShares UltraShort SmallCap600 (SDD); Volatility = 7.4%
Buy 651 shares ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS); Volatility = 6.1%
Buy 690 shares ProShares Short S&P500 (SH); Volatility = 3.2%
Buy 892 shares ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (DXD); Volatility = 5.5%
Buy 509 shares ProShares UltraShort MSCI EAFE (EFU); Volatility = 7.2%
Buy 502 shares ProShares UltraShort MSCI Japan (EWV); Volatility = 5.6%
Buy 651 shares ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS); Volatility = 6.1%
Buy 514 shares ProShares Short MSCI EAFE (EFZ); Volatility = 3.8%
Buy 412 shares Rydex Inverse 2x S&P 500 (RSW); Volatility = 5.9%
Buy 838 shares ProShares Short SmallCap600 (SBB); Volatility = 4.0%
Buy 313 shares ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (SDOW); Volatility = 8.0%
Buy 546 shares ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU); Volatility = 8.9%

Only three of these picks are straight short funds. The remainder are 2X short, so be careful of the extra leverage these funds employ. I don’t have the capability to present charts for all these funds, but let’s examine the price action for the first pick, which is representative. SDD has been in a parabolic updraft with a sharp decline today. RSI’s price excursion module likes that price action. It is tempting to jump into this trade and ride further up. But do your due diligence and be careful. All these funds are trading lower in after hours. I guess the market players are buying what Bernanke is telling them about the economy and that the FED will keep rates lower. When the reality hits them players these short funds will again soar.

Wall Street plummets as fear jumps on historic downgrade

2011-08-08T21:54:00.001-06:00

U.S. stocks plunged on Monday in the heaviest volume since last year's "flash crash," taking the S&P 500 down more than 6 percent on growing fears of a recession, in the first session after the historic loss of the country's pristine triple-A credit rating.

Panicked selling resulted in the S&P 500's worst day since December 2008, with every stock in the benchmark index ending in negative territory.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 634.76 points, or 5.55 percent, to end at 10,809.85. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index sank 79.92 points, or 6.66 percent, to finish at 1,119.46. The Nasdaq Composite Index plunged 174.72 points, or 6.90 percent, to close at 2,357.69. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

The RSI portfolio took a hit today, but nowhere close to the overall downdraft experienced by the markets due to its high cash position. However its position in the small cap fund IJS got clobbered by a –8.5% hit. Ouch! It the carnage extends into tomorrow and beyond I expect it will hit its stop loss level.

There were no RSI picks today … thankfully.

Wall Street closes worst week since '08 with wild day – Stopped out EWT, GDX & UNG

2011-08-05T22:07:00.001-06:00

Stocks closed out their worst week in more than two years on Friday in a volatile session that saw the major indexes whip back and forth before the S&P 500 ended down less than a point.

More than 15.9 billion shares -- or more than twice the daily average volume -- traded in the busiest day in more than a year as investors plowed into cash-rich mega-cap stocks that had been beaten down in recent days as the market dropped.

The market's swings on Friday were fast and furious, with the Dow Jones industrial average covering 416.41 points from its session high to its intraday low.

The intense selling this week reflects frustration with sluggish economic growth and politicians' inability to address pressing concerns over high public debt in Europe and the United States.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 60.93 points, or 0.54 percent, to end at 11,444.61. But the Standard & Poor's 500 Index edged down just 0.69 of a point, or 0.06 percent, to finish at 1,199.38. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 23.98 points, or 0.94 percent, to close at 2,532.41. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

Today’s wild ride took out the stops on EWT, GDX and UNG. They represent Taiwan, Gold miners and Natural Gas respectively. This now brings only three holdings in the RSI portfolio; AGQ, IJS and DBB. This represents Ultra Silver, Small Cap Value and Base Metals respectively. I should add this market tumble and stop loss hits has fattened cash reserves to 83% … that is huge.

After the market closed there were no RSI buy signals. It is time for a rest. Have a great weekend.

Wall Street suffers worst selloff in two years – Stopped out EWJ, MLPL, EWP, & USD; RSI recommends SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Prod (XOP)

2011-08-04T22:32:00.001-06:00

Investors fled Wall Street in the worst stock-market selloff since the middle of the financial crisis in early 2009 in what has turned into a full-fledged correction.

The Dow and the S&P tumbled more than 4 percent on Thursday and the Nasdaq lost 5 percent on fear the United States is staring at another recession and that Europe's sovereign debt crisis is swallowing two of its largest economies.

Analysts predicted further losses even though stocks have fallen on nine of the last 10 days. Two-year Treasury yields fell to a record low as investors sought safety in short-term government bonds.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 512.46 points, or 4.31 percent, at 11,383.98. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 60.21 points, or 4.78 percent, at 1,200.13. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 136.68 points, or 5.08 percent, at 2,556.39. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

Today’s carnage took down the RSI portfolio as four positions stopped out for –1.0R losses. They are:

iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ)
UBS E-TRACS 2x Long Alerian MLP Infr ETN (MLPL)
iShares MSCI Spain Index (EWP)
ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (USD)

This leaves six remaining holdings. What to do next? We have all the stops still in place and if there is further market carnage, I expect maybe three to five funds that will hit the skids. On the bright side, there is only a finite loss that can befall the portfolio when all the remaining stops get hit. We will know in the fullness of time.

After the market close, RSI issued sell signals on USO & OIL, but surprisingly it gave the following buy signals:

Buy 207 shares SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Prod (XOP); Volatility = 8.79%

Not too surprisingly since the module that made this pick looks for extreme price excursions (see the chart below). If you wait until the end of this decline, it might be a worthy investment. After all, we still need to find and produce oil & gas … right?

Massive rout spells trouble for Wall Street - EWW sold on stop loss

2011-08-02T21:50:00.001-06:00

The S&P 500 turned negative for the year on Tuesday as the wrangling over the U.S. debt ceiling faded and investors turned their attention to the stalling economy.

The broad-based index fell for a seventh day and crashed through its key 200-day moving average in an ominous sign for markets. The seven days of losses mark the longest losing streak since October 2008.

Composite volume on the NYSE, the Amex and the Nasdaq reached 9.7 billion shares, well above this year's daily average of around 7.5 billion.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 265.87 points, or 2.19 percent, to 11,866.62. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX dropped 32.89 points, or 2.56 percent, to 1,254.05. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dropped 75.37 points, or 2.75 percent, to 2,669.24. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

A 2% drop in iShares MSCI Mexico Investable Mkt Idx (EWW) triggered a stop loss sell at the –1.0R level. We didn’t hold this position for very long; opened it on July 28th and sold today. Unless this market downdraft stops soon, more positions will hit their stops.

Catch you later.

Wall Street falls as data outweighs debt deal – RSI picks inverse VIX fund

2011-08-01T23:06:00.001-06:00

The S&P 500 fell for a sixth day on Monday as time runs out for the government to pass a deal to avoid default and the economy showed further signs of stalling.

The market pared losses late in the day before Congress was expected to vote on Monday on a debt deal backed by the White House, which includes spending cuts of $2.4 trillion over 10 years.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 10.75 points, or 0.09 percent, to 12,132.49. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 5.34 points, or 0.41 percent, to 1,286.94. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 11.77 points, or 0.43 percent, to 2,744.61. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

The market selloff continues to weigh on the RSI portfolio. There were a lot of red numbers, but no stops were hit. After the market’s close RSI issued a buy signal today:

Buy 1003 shares iPath Inverse Jan 2021 VIX ST Fut ETN (IVO)

This is an inverse, i.e. moves in the opposite direction of the volatility index, ETN (Exchange Traded Note). So it is a bet that the markets settle down. Let’s look at the chart. Although the trajectory of IVO is rather flattening out, it has some good recent action. If you are at all interested in this fund, I suggest jumping on it soon since there is a good chance that the S&P500 will be settling down. Go for it.

Catch you later.

Buyers exit market before House debt plan vote - Sold BHH & bought EWW

2011-07-28T22:07:00.001-06:00

Stocks faded in the afternoon on Thursday to end mostly lower, with investors skeptical a key vote by Congress would lead to a deal to avoid a U.S. default.

The S&P 500 fell for a fourth straight day as buyers kept to the sidelines while lawmakers tried to hash out an agreement on the deficit.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI ended down 62.44 points, or 0.51 percent, at 12,240.11. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 4.22 points, or 0.32 percent, at 1,300.67. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC finished up 1.46 points, or 0.05 percent, at 2,766.25. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

During the day the stop loss level on BHH was hit and it was sold. I looked at the trading and the price spiked down the first 30 minutes of the day and that’s what took me out. That is natural market forces. If I was paranoid I would have thought it was market makers picking off my stop. But i have to be a realist. I took the money and reinvested it in yesterday’s RSI pick of EWW. It had a sharp rise today but fell back to almost even by the end of the day.

There were no RSI picks today.

Deadlock, durables, dismal earnings hit Wall Street – RSI picks Mexico (EWW)

2011-07-27T22:55:00.001-06:00

Wall Street suffered its worst day in eight weeks on Wednesday, hit by weak earnings, lackluster economic data and no movement in Washington talks as the deadline for a default looms.

The debt ceiling debate has grabbed much of investors' attention this week as the August 2 deadline approaches, but it took a back seat for much of the day as the market reacted to earnings disappointments in industrial and technology sectors.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 198.75 points, or 1.59 percent, at 12,302.55. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 27.05 points, or 2.03 percent, at 1,304.89. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 75.17 points, or 2.65 percent, at 2,764.79.

The S&P 500 fell below it's 50-day moving average, and analysts are eyeing the 200-day average at 1283.6 as an area of support. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have fallen for three straight days while the Dow fell for a fourth day. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

This is the market’s worse day in eight weeks. This big market selloff today wacked the RSI portfolio. What do we do now? The simple answer is that we stick with the discipline of the system. We have sell stops on all our holdings at the –1.0R levels. We also have alerts at the +2.0R levels. When this level is hit we will initiate –0.3R trailing profit stops. I have tested the RSI methodology throughout some of the worse market selloffs and it hasn’t blown up. Yes, it can be gut wrenching, but RSI will survive. Right now we are experiencing a pretty sharp drawdown but it isn’t even close to 10%. Of our twelve current positions, only four are profitable and another day like today could easily see two or three positions stopped out for a loss. We have to live with that reality and not panic out. It pays to sit tight.

Well, after the close, RSI issued a buy signal:

Buy 743 shares iShares MSCI Mexico Investable Mkt Idx (EWW)

This caught me flatfooted but let’s take a look at it. It was one of the few ETFs that were up today. It is showing great volume and good money flow. Looks like a winner to me.

Catch you later.

Debt standoff pressures stocks, drives wary mood – Bought RSI’s prior hero AGQ

2011-07-25T22:15:00.001-06:00

Stocks dipped on Monday as lawmakers remained in a standoff over raising the debt ceiling to avoid default, but investors were convinced a compromise will be reached before next week's critical deadline.

Trading volume, however, was light even for a seasonally quiet period, suggesting investors were holding to the sidelines. In another sign of negative sentiment, declining stocks far outpaced advancers despite the day's moderate declines.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 88.36 points, or 0.70 percent, at 12,592.80. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 7.59 points, or 0.56 percent, at 1,337.43. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 16.03 points, or 0.56 percent, at 2,842.80. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

The RSI portfolio was down about the same percentage as the market averages. I expect there will be a debt resolution in the coming days, no too soon for most investors.

This weekend I had an opportunity to review some of RSI’s past recommendations. AGQ looked appealing from several technical prospectives and I liked what I saw. It also didn’t hurt that an independent source I follow highlighted this ETF. Earlier this year RSI picked AGQ, we made a quick +2.0R profit and then it picked it again with the same results. Looking at a chart shows that after a sharp selloff in late April, the downtrend was reversed around the first of this month. The parameters are:

Buy 30 shares ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) for each $1,000 of risk. Set stop loss at –1.0R and trigger a 0.3R trailing profit stop when it reaches a +2.0R level.

This month marks the one year holding period for iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT). The holding is sitting at a +0.8R profit. I was toying with the idea of selling it, but I guess I should stick with it. It might not be dead money. Here is a one year chart for EWT.

There were no new RSI picks after the closing bell. I’ll catch you later.

Nasdaq ends up on chipmaker earnings – Took a flyer on GDX & EWJ

2011-07-22T22:10:00.001-06:00

Investors poured into tech shares on Friday as promising chipmaker earnings and optimism a solution was on the horizon for the U.S. debt stalemate triggered a move into growth-oriented shares.

Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 42.95 points, or 0.34 percent, to end at 12,681.16. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 1.22 points, or 0.09 percent, at 1,345.02. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 24.40 points, or 0.86 percent, at 2,858.83.

For the week, the Dow ended up 1.6 percent, the S&P 500 gained 2.2 percent and the Nasdaq roe 2.5 percent. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio was up smartly today, outperforming the major averages. It was boosted by a 4.4% gain in Ultra Semiconductors – USD. Three positions had fractional percentage losses. Today I purchased both GDX and EWJ which were recently picked by RSI. I thought I got a good price on each. It will be instructive to see how they turn out.

Have a great weekend and I’ll catch you later.

U.S. debt news and euro debt agreement fuel rally – RSI picks iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ) … again

2011-07-21T22:07:00.001-06:00

Stocks climbed on Thursday as signs of progress on the U.S. debt talks and concrete action from Europe on its own debt crisis heartened investors.

But the biggest news was on a possible U.S. debt deal to save the United States from an unprecedented default.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 152.50 points, or 1.21 percent, to 12,724.41. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX rose 17.96 points, or 1.35 percent, to 1,343.80. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC advanced 20.20 points, or 0.72 percent, to 2,834.43. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

Back last October RSI picked EWJ and today it again went back to the Japan well. Here is the pick:

Buy 1151 shares iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ); Volatility = 3.20%

For the past several weeks EWJ has been in a well defined up-trending channel and RSI wants to hitch onto the up elevator. Apparently RSI thinks that Japan has put its troubles behind. Whatever, the market is favoring EWJ. I like it too and may buy it tomorrow.

Have a good day and I’ll catch you later.

Wall Street closes flat as debt worries offset earns – RSI picks gold miners (GDX)

2011-07-20T22:55:00.001-06:00

Stocks closed near unchanged on Wednesday a day after Wall Street's best rally since March, as the oncoming debt ceiling deadline overshadowed strong earnings from Apple Inc.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI lost 15.51 points, or 0.12 percent, at 12,571.91. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX shed 0.89 points, or 0.07 percent, at 1,325.84. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC fell 12.29 points, or 0.43 percent, at 2,814.23. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

The RSI portfolio took a bit of a hit today, but it was minor. After the market close, there was a new buy pick:

Buy 108 shares Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX); Volatility = 6.13%

This past weekend I have been physically examining a large number of ETF charts, looking for potential buy candidates. Of the promising candidates the precious metals have been outstanding. I was glad to see this ETF on today’s buy list. My only problem with this pick is that it has been quite strong in the last three weeks and I would like to see some sort of a pullback before I buy it.

Catch you later.

Wall Street drops on global debt woes – Coffee ETN (JO) stopped out

2011-07-18T22:22:00.001-06:00

Stocks dropped on Monday as bank shares bore the brunt of investor frustration over governments' inability to solve debt crises in the United States and Europe.

With five days to go before President Barack Obama's deadline for a debt ceiling deal and no agreement in sight, Republicans and Democrats were crafting a fallback plan to avert a U.S. default.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 94.57 points, or 0.76 percent, to 12,385.16. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX declined 10.70 points, or 0.81 percent, to 1,305.44. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC fell 24.69 points, or 0.89 percent, to 2,765.11. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

Well we didn’t keep JO very long. It dropped below its stop loss level and was sold for a –1.0R loss. That’s all part of the process and a necessary happening in this world of systematic investing/trading. The next one that is moving towards the stop loss level is the Spain ETF (EWP) followed by the Ultra-Semi (USD).

I’m still monitoring the three short RSI picks from last Thursday and Friday. They certainly look promising in this grim environment.

No new RSI buy signals today. Catch you later.

Google lifts Wall Street in otherwise rough week – RSI recommends ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil (SCO)

2011-07-16T00:38:00.001-06:00

Google's blowout quarter led the Nasdaq higher on Friday but mounting uncertainty about the government's ability to reach a debt-reduction deal may keep investors at bay in the coming week.

The gains were a bright spot in a stretch dominated by selling that pushed the S&P 500 down in its worst week in five. Worries about U.S. and European government debt troubles put pressure on the market even as investors expect a batch of strong earnings next week.

For the week, the S&P 500 ended down 2.1 percent, while the Dow lost 1.4 percent and the Nasdaq fell 2.5 percent. . (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

After the bell, RSI picked the following:

Buy 265 shares ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil (SCO); Volatility = 7.90%

SCO is trading at the low end of the uptrend channel. Monitor this to see if SCO moves back to the trend. This is a 2X fund, so it is quite volatile. Treat it with care.

Have a great weekend.

Stocks fall after Bernanke dims stimulus hopes – RSI likes short Mid Cap

2011-07-14T22:32:00.001-06:00

Stocks are closing lower after remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke dimmed hopes for a third round of bond-buying.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index is down 9 points, or 0.7 percent, to close at 1,309. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 54, or 0.4 percent, to 12,437. The Nasdaq composite fell 34, or 1.2 percent, to 2,763.

About four stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume was light at 3.8 billion. (commentary & photo courtesy of AP)

A tough day on the market forced RSI to pick tow short funds:

Buy 1583 shares ProShares Short MidCap400 (MYY); Volatility = 2.08%
Buy 587 shares ProShares UltraShort MidCap400 (MZZ); Volatility = 4.32%

Both these funds have started a new uptrend as the overall market has weakened. These might be attractive as a hedge against further market weakness. Might be worth taking a flyer.

Catch you later.

Europe and tech push Wall St to 3rd day of losses - RSI picks ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Metal ETN (RJZ)

2011-07-12T22:01:00.001-06:00

U.S. stocks closed lower for a third straight day on Tuesday as Europe's fiscal woes and a weak start to tech earnings gave investors little reason to buy even after the recent losses.

Equities bounced briefly following release of the Fed's minutes with comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting the possibility of more stimulative policies, but the move was short-lived as uncertainty over Europe kept investors away from beaten-down shares. On Monday, stocks posted their worst day in a month.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 58.88 points, or 0.47 percent, to 12,446.88 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX shed 5.85 points, or 0.44 percent, to 1,313.64. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dropped 20.71 points, or 0.74 percent, to 2,781.91. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

Yes, today’s market action weighed on the RSI portfolio. Nothing close to the stop loss limits. However after the bell RSI picked the following:

Buy 2702 shares ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Metal ETN (RJZ); Volatility = 3%

In the past we have owned other Rogers funds and they have done us well. Let’s take a look at this one. It is thinly traded and has a lot of chop in its price action. It appears to be breaking out to the upside. I would buy the breakout. We do own a metal fund, PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB) and it appears to be on the same general trajectory, so I have to decide if we need more exposure to metals.

Catch you later.

Wall Street records worst day in a month, VIX jumps – No buy picks from RSI

2011-07-12T00:48:00.001-06:00

Stocks suffered their worst day in nearly a month on Monday as concern about the stalemate in U.S. budget talks and growing debt problems in the euro zone prompted investors to hedge against further losses.

The S&P 500 dropped nearly 2 percent on concerns that Europe's debt crisis would spread to Italy. European officials were still struggling to solve Greece's fiscal problems as Italy's markets have been roiled by worry about its banks.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 151.44 points, or 1.20 percent, at 12,505.76 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 24.31 points, or 1.81 percent, at 1,319.49. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 57.19 points, or 2.00 percent, at 2,802.62. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio suffered along with the rest of the market logging a 1.2% loss. Better than the S&P and NASDAQ performance but a healthy loss after all.

There were no RSI buy picks today.

Retail, tech lead Wall Street rally before jobs data

2011-07-07T22:16:00.001-06:00

Stocks closed sharply higher and the Nasdaq notched an eighth day of gains on Thursday as improved labor market and retail sales data added to optimism a day before the critical June payrolls report.

Equities have been on a tear recently as improving economic data and a potential resolution to Greece's fiscal issues paved over fears of slowing growth and contagion stemming from the euro zone's debt crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI shot up 93.47 points, or 0.74 percent, to 12,719.49. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX gained 14 points, or 1.05 percent, to 1,353.22. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC climbed 38.64 points, or 1.36 percent, to 2,872.66. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

******************************************************************

The RSI portfolio joined the market rally with a great gain today. A 4.4% gain in the Ultra Semi fund and a 2.4% gain in the B2B Internet fund helped to propel it up. The only holding in the red was our natural gas fund with a –1.6% loss. Eight in the green and only one in the red. Not too shabby. The holding in iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (IJS) is approaching a +2.0R gain and I’m watching it to initiate a trailing stop. Stay tuned.

There were no RSI picks today. In fact there hasn’t been a buy signal generated by RSI since June 30th when it issued one for Coffee ETN. It has been a while hasn’t it?

Catch you later and hang in there.

Fireworks wrap up Wall Street's best week in 2 years - Bought iPath Coffee (JO)

2011-07-01T22:52:00.001-06:00

July started on a positive note for U.S. stocks with Wall Street notching its fifth day of gains on Friday after a surprising jump in manufacturing data eased concerns about a tepid economic recovery.

The gains put equities on track for their best week in nearly a year, as the data and a temporary resolution to Greece's debt situation spurred increased demand for riskier assets.

The pace of growth in manufacturing picked up for the first time in four months, with an index of national factory activity rising to 55.3 in June from 53.5 in May, Institute for Supply Management (ISM) data showed.

The ISM survey built on surprisingly strong regional business data on Thursday, reversing a recent trend of weaker-than-expected data.

For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 168.43 points, or 1.36 percent, to end unofficially at 12,582.77. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX added 19.03 points, or 1.44 percent, to finish unofficially at 1,339.67. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC shot up 42.51 points, or 1.53 percent, to close unofficially at 2,816.03.

For the week, the Dow rose 5.4 percent, the S&P 500 gained up 5.6 percent and the Nasdaq climbed 6.2 percent. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

The RSI portfolio had a great day joining in today’s rally of the market indices. Again it was led by an almost 4% gain in the Ultra Semi fund. All holdings except for UNG (down less than –0.2R) are profitable. Today I monitored yesterday’s pick of iPath DJ-UBS Coffee TR Sub-Idx ETN (JO) and bought on the dip. I think that shall be a good entry point. Maybe with the market back on track there will be more coffee consumed. It’s a stretch.

There were no new RSI buy signals today. Have a great Independence Day weekend. The US markets will be closed Monday.

Wall Street up as S&P 500 tops 50-day moving average – RSI likes coffee (JO)

2011-06-30T22:18:00.001-06:00

Wall Street rose for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday in an end-of-quarter rally that was boosted by a surprisingly strong economic report covering the U.S. Midwest.

The major stock indexes rose 1 percent, including the benchmark S&P 500, which climbed above its 50-day moving average at 1,317 despite analysts' expectations it would meet resistance.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 139.60 points, or 1.14 percent, at 12,401.02. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 12.60 points, or 0.96 percent, at 1,320.01. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 31.47 points, or 1.15 percent, at 2,771.96. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

Again RSI’s holdings beat the market indices today with a 1.4% gain. It was boosted by a 5.3% gain in Ultra Semi fund and 3% rise in the Spain ETF.

After the market closed today RSI had a buy recommendation:

Buy 365 shares iPath DJ-UBS Coffee TR Sub-Idx ETN (JO); Volatility = 4.0%

JO has broken out through the top of its descending price channel. Maybe signaling a reversal in trend? Maybe so. The bad news is that it is thinly traded (a trade risk) and its low volatility requires a large dollar position to take on a –1.0R risk. Will I buy it? Maybe so, I’ll take a look at it since I have built up some cash reserves.

Well that’s it for Thursday. Catch you later.

Wall Street sinks on Europe's debt misery – Bought MLPL

2011-06-24T22:04:00.001-06:00

Wall Street dropped for a third day on Friday on worries about the Italian banking sector and Greece's debt crisis, but the S&P 500 managed to hold its 200-day moving average in a sign buyers still see value.

The Dow industrials and the S&P 500 fell for their seventh week in the last eight. The benchmark S&P 500 is down 7 percent from its 2011 closing high at the end of April.

Investors are fearful that Greece's government may fail to pass an austerity plan next week, which could force a default on its debt repayments. The government faces an electorate vehemently opposed to the austerity measures.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 115.42 points, or 0.96 percent, to 11,934.58 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX fell 15.05 points, or 1.17 percent, to 1,268.45. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC lost 33.86 points, or 1.26 percent, to 2,652.89.

For the week, the Dow fell 0.58 percent and the S&P 500 shed 0.24 percent, while the Nasdaq gained 1.39 percent. (commentary & photo courtesy Reuters)

Another bad market day and another bad week too. I purchased a position in RSI’s latest pick MLPL. It was one of the few winners today.

No new RSI picks today … have a great weekend.

Wall Street reverses sharp sell-off on Greek deal – RSI picks MLPL

2011-06-23T22:41:00.001-06:00

Stocks closed way off session lows on Thursday on news Greece agreed to a five-year austerity plan, but lingering economic uncertainty ultimately drove indexes mostly lower, keeping a downward trend in place.

The Nasdaq wiped out all its losses, ending the session higher and back in the black for the year.

The news out of Greece set the stage for a resolution to Athens' credit problems, which have hurt investor sentiment around the globe.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 59.67 points, or 0.49 percent, to 12,050.00 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX lost 3.64 points, or 0.28 percent, to 1,283.50. But the Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 17.56 points, or 0.66 percent, to 2,686.75. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

For most of today, the RSI portfolio was down big, but it followed the market and ended slightly down. It was a fraction of the potential loss. A good reason not to panic out.

After the market closed RSI issued a buy signal:

Buy 665 shares UBS E-TRACS 2x Long Alerian MLP Infrastructure ETN (MLPL); Volatility = 4.43%

Yes, I know this fund is a mouthful, but I urge you to investigate this pick. Although it is twice leveraged it has low volatility. Unfortunately it is thinly traded, so one has to use care in buying and selling this fund. On the plus side is that it pays a quarterly distribution that is about a 9% annual yield.

MLPL has been recovering from its recent correction. I expect it will move forward to its upper (green) trendline. I would buy this on any sign of strength. Maybe tomorrow? Hey, what can be better than Infrastructure and high yield?

Have a good evening.

Wall Street falls after 4 up days on Fed's comments – Bought BHH

2011-06-22T22:28:00.001-06:00

Stocks dropped on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve acknowledged the sluggish pace of the U.S. economic recovery without hinting at further plans for stimulus.

The Fed said the recovery was proceeding more slowly than it had expected. In his news conference, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke offered nothing to motivate investors to buy equities.

Without new information from the Fed, investors were left to take profits after a four-day rally that lifted stocks from three-month lows. Some analysts see range-bound trading ahead, with 1,295 among the S&P 500's first targets of resistance.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slid 80.34 points, or 0.66 percent, to 12,109.67 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX dropped 8.38 points, or 0.65 percent, to 1,287.14. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC tumbled 18.07 points, or 0.67 percent, to 2,669.19. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

This morning I purchased BHH for the RSI portfolio. The portfolio took a hit, less than the market indices, but a –0.5 % hit nevertheless. For the day, all the holdings were in the red.

There were no new RSI buy signals today.

Wall Street rallies for 4th day; Greek government wins vote – RSI picks BHH

2011-06-21T21:57:00.001-06:00

Stocks posted gains for the fourth day on Tuesday on growing hopes that Greece will avoid a debt default, adding momentum to the market's recent rebound.

The Nasdaq had its biggest percentage gain since October, while the S&P 500 marked its best day in two months in what investors believe could be continued short-term buying from deeply oversold levels.

The Nasdaq reclaimed positive territory for the year and led the market's advance, boosted by a jump in semiconductor stocks. A semiconductor index .SOX shot up 2.5 percent, its best gain since April.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 109.63 points, or 0.91 percent, to 12,190.01 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX gained 17.16 points, or 1.34 percent, to 1,295.52. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC climbed 57.60 points, or 2.19 percent, to 2,687.26. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

The RSI portfolio had a great day too, beating the market averages. Yesterday I took profits in SRTY, the Ultra-short R2000. It would have continued to drag down the portfolio if it had remained in the mix today. It ended up with a +1.4R profit.

After the market closed today RSI issued a buy signal:

Buy 10,902 shares B2B Internet HOLDRs (BHH); Volatility = 7.98%

Yes, that is almost a volatility of 8%, pretty high for most RSI picks. It appears to be trying to breakout from a downtrend started in early April. I would buy this on a breakout from the descending trendline.

Have a great evening and a successful stock market day tomorrow.

Dow, S&P rise, but Greek woes keep bears on prowl

2011-06-20T00:41:00.001-06:00

The Dow and S&P 500 rose on Friday after France and Germany outlined an agreement to aid debt-burdened Greece, but analysts said a recent bearish trend may not be over.

The Dow managed to close just above 12,000, but the S&P 500 barely squeaked out a gain for the week after six straight weeks of losses. The uncertainty surrounding a resolution of the debt crisis kept investors wary of committing more cash to equities.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 42.84 points, or 0.36 percent, to end at 12,004.36. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX gained 3.86 points, or 0.30 percent, to 1,271.50. But the Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC fell 7.22 points, or 0.28 percent, to 2,616.48. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

Not much to say. The RSI portfolio has been dropping most of this week. The good news is that cash reserves are building up waiting for future buying opportunities.

No new RSi buying recommendations after Friday’s market close. I hope you had a good weekend.